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20
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«We are in the biggest drone war in all history of humankind», - a philanthropist Lyuba Shipovich

«Currently, only one country in the world can resist Russia - Ukraine. If NATO considers Russia an enemy, then they definitely should be interested in having Ukraine as a good ally»

Nataliia Zhukovska

Lyuba Shipovich

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Lyuba Shipovich had been living in the United States since 2008, but after the beginning of the full-scale war, she returned to Ukraine. Lyuba is a co-founder of the «Razom for Ukraine» public organisation, and since 2023, the founder of the «Dignitas» charitable foundation, which takes care of military and veteran projects, including providing the army with UAVs and training drone operators. Last year, Shipovich was listed in the TOP 50 Ukrainian female leaders according to Forbes magazine.

Drones for the frontlines

Nataliia Zhukovska: Lyuba, the main area of your work is unmanned technologies: surveillance and combat drones. What is the real situation with military units being provided with UAVs today?

Lyuba Shipovich: It is about technology in general. Apart from unmanned vehicles, there is also software, situation awareness, combat control systems etc. As for the drone supply, the state is now buying them. Yes, not yet in a sufficient amount but they started doing it. However, we still lack the infrastructure for these drones. I am talking about antennas, ground control stations, portable power stations, tablets, 3D printers for explosive components of air-dropping systems. Unfortunately, this whole infrastructure is not funded by the state at all at the moment. The funding comes either from foundations or the units raise the money for this themselves.

The drone does not fly by itself. There also have to be glasses, RCs, antennas, charging devices, tablets, retranslators

What has to be done to ensure there are enough drones on the frontlines?

If we compare 2022, when there were no drones at all, to the situation now, it is significantly better. According to the prime minister, 40 billion hryvnias have been dedicated to purchasing unmanned systems this year. This already is an improvement. But it is not enough. When the President is talking about a million drones, it sounds like a lot. In reality, however, we calculated that such an amount would only be sufficient for three months in today’s frontline and combat intensity. Therefore, a million - is, in essence, a fourth part of the yearly demand.

We are engaged in an intense war, the largest drone war in the world in the history of humanity. Moreover, due to the frequent lack of ammunition, drones often replace artillery. Western countries were not prepared for a large-scale land war. NATO's doctrine is to gain air superiority. However, we are conducting a large-scale land war. Even the combined NATO countries cannot supply it with enough ammunition. On one hand, they lack the capacity, on the other hand, political and bureaucratic processes are an obstacle. We cannot rely solely on the help of our Western allies.

We must invest in our own production. And what we are doing quite well is primarily the production of unmanned technologies
With the Ukrainian military

It is known that Ukraine still depends on China for some components necessary for drone production. And last year, the Chinese already imposed certain export restrictions. How do you assess the risk that at some point they might completely «tighten the screws»?

We need to look for alternatives. China is the cheapest and largest manufacturer, but fortunately, not a monopolist. There are other manufacturers in Central Asian countries. Factories are also being built in Europe and the USA. And, of course, we need to pay enormous attention to localising the production of components. We should produce in Ukraine everything that can be produced here, even if it is more expensive. Because during the war, the cost is not evaluated purely based on the economic factor. There is also the factor of national security. Currently, there are several hundred stable productions in Ukraine. However, very few of them scale up production capacities because they do not have guarantees that orders will be consistent.

The state should enter into medium- to long-term contracts with manufacturers for procurement. If the contract is at least three years, it will be of interest to the manufacturer to invest in their business

This is probably the biggest problem. And if we talk about manufacturers in European countries, they generally want 8- to 10-year contracts. After all, these are capital investments in production lines, expansion of facilities, and so on.

Lyuba, you have been involved in volunteer work since 2014. It was then that the charitable foundation «Razom for Ukraine» was established in the United States. You are one of its co-founders. Since February 24, over the course of a year, you have managed to raise 68 million dollars. How did you achieve that?

Over 60 per cent of the funds came from small donations from people, mostly Americans and Canadians. They contributed 10, 20, 100 dollars to help the Ukrainian army. There were also corporate donations. Up to ten corporations donated 1 million dollars each. These were quite well-known companies worldwide that often wished to remain anonymous. I attribute this level of activity among foreigners to the fact that, at that time, Ukraine was at the top of all the news. It was a natural impulse to help in the fight against injustice.

It is also important to understand the American culture, where volunteerism is instilled from a young age. It is an integral part of life. There are even special days of the year, such as Giving Tuesday, that unite people to help each other. Currently, this support has decreased significantly, partly because Ukraine has disappeared from the news. Last December, I travelled to the United States, where Americans asked me, «Is there still a war going on?» If it is not shown in the news, it seems like it is over. But it is the same as Ukrainians not knowing what is happening in other countries. For example, in December, an important news story was about Venezuela. But if you ask Ukrainians what happened there, many would say, «Where is that?» When something is not in the news, it feels like it does not exist.

Support from the «Dignitas» charitable foundation

Last year, the team that worked on military and veteran projects within «Razom for Ukraine» separated into a new foundation called Dignitas. Why did this happen?

Out of the 68 million dollars that we managed to raise during the first year of the full-scale war, 45 million went to support the military. Specifically, this included the purchase of tactical medicine, drones, radios, power stations and so on. Meanwhile, the organisation also had humanitarian programs. Towards the end of 2022, discussions began about reducing military aid and redirecting more funds towards support and rebuilding efforts. At that time, I was the only board member based in Ukraine - all others were in the United States.

I tried to convey to people that it was still too early to focus on rebuilding Ukraine and that investment in defence was necessary. Because if we do not destroy the Russian tank, it will continue to wipe our cities off the map. Consequently, the rebuilding would become a never-ending process

It was at this stage that certain differences began to emerge. It became increasingly difficult to advocate that the funds were needed specifically for the military. After consulting with my team, we decided to separate into a new foundation, where it is clearly stated in the charter that we are a foundation for technological assistance to the security and defence forces, as well as veterans. We started again with zero dollars in our account.

Who forms the «core» of your team?

All those who had worked with us on military and veteran projects since 2014. The largest initiative, «Victory Drones», is led by Mariya Berlinska. It is an ecosystem for training the military in technology, specifically drone operators for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SES), and medical services in cooperation with the General Staff. There is also the «Fierce Birds» project, which supplies strike drones to the front line. It is led by Katya Nesterenko, who had worked for many years in the «Isolation» project and is very knowledgeable and understanding of the Donetsk region.

During military technology training

There is a project called «A Thousand Drones», which primarily focuses on reconnaissance drones. For example, in the United States, we are not allowed to raise funds for strike drones. Therefore, we have split the fundraising efforts: we collect funds for strike drones in Ukraine and for reconnaissance drones abroad.

There is also the «Fly» project, within which military personnel in rehabilitation departments are taught to operate FPV drones. This project is led by Dana Yurovich, who had previously worked for many years with the Ministry of Health team under Ulana Suprun (acting Minister of Health of Ukraine from 2016 to 2019) and on various international projects. In the tenth year of the war, volunteering needs to be professional. Yes, there were periods when everyone was doing everything when tourniquets and drones were bought indiscriminately and without understanding. But in reality, such an approach is an inefficient use of financial resources, which are already quite limited. Everyone should focus on their area of expertise.

For example, everyone knows that they need to buy a Mavic drone. However, not all understand that there is a whole line of them with different characteristics and firmware. As a result, people spend money on the Mavic 3 Classic, which is often unsuitable for use on the frontlines. But if a little more money were added, another drone could be purchased that would definitely be useful. There have even been cases where drones were bought and handed over to the military without being reprogrammed, and without anonymised firmware, they revealed positions. So, sometimes it is not just wasteful, it can be harmful to the military. That is why we do not get involved in other areas. Our focus is on technology.

For a long time, you were involved in advocating for weapons for Ukraine. What was the most challenging part, and did Western politicians always listen to you?

I continue to do this work even now. Our American team regularly communicates with congressmen and attends meetings. This work does not stop. In 2022, it was challenging to convince American politicians that Ukraine would hold out. If you recall that period, what kind of weapons was Ukraine being given? It was Javelins and Stingers - not for waging war, but for guerrilla warfare. Only in May 2022, when it became clear that Ukraine was indeed ready to fight, did they start providing heavier weapons for conventional military operations. So, until the middle of 2022, it was a matter of simply convincing them that we could and would endure, that we did not need to surrender Ukraine along the Dnipro or agree to any peace deals.

We have shown that we are ready to fight. The Western politicians and voters believed in us
In Donbas

What do we need to do to prevent the weakening of support from Europe and the United States?

It seems to me that Ukraine has disappeared from the news in the United States. We are not acting proactively. Look at Russia, which has been developing a network of television channels around the world for over 20 years. They broadcast in different languages - Arabic, Spanish, English, French, German, and others - meaning they generate their own content. In addition, they have a whole series of entertainment programs. They attract viewers' attention with these, and then they broadcast news between them. And what kind of news do the Russians broadcast about Ukraine? The ones that benefit them.

Where does the Western consumer get information about Ukraine? Either from the infrequent news in Western media or from Russian TV channels. We need to pay more attention to the information space and understand that foreign consumers consume information in their own language. Not Ukrainian and not always English. There is a huge Spanish-speaking world that we do not pay attention to, and the Arab world, where we also have very little information. And to gain support in those countries from politicians, we first need to gain it from their voters.

Why are there political bargaining and debates in America right now? Ukraine is a bargaining chip because voters do not have a clear opinion about us. If all voters wanted to support Ukraine, it could be guaranteed that politicians would do the same. Because they listen to their voters, especially in America, where congressional elections are held every two years. It is a relatively short election cycle, so voters are listened to constantly. Moreover, our politicians often use Western media to fight among themselves. And it is important to understand that this does not benefit us either.

When Western consumers see our internal political games, they think the war is over because local politicians are competing with each other

The major goal of the state is Ukraine's accession to NATO. This would be the greatest security guarantee for the country. Do you believe in NATO, where everyone defends each other?

I have spoken with Poles on this topic quite a bit. They are confident that they will be the next target of the Russian Federation. But when you ask them if they would go to defend their country, the response is: «Why would we? We are in NATO, the Americans will come to protect us». That is the classic answer. They do not understand that the primary responsibility is to defend their own country. And this collective NATO agreement is not about sitting back while someone else comes to fight for you. It means that we all defend each other together.

Lyuba Shipovich: «Currently, only one country in the world can resist Russia - Ukraine»
In my opinion, Russia will not go into Poland next, but into the Baltic countries. And I think that Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians understand this very well. They also understand that they must rely on their own forces. That is why they are actively preparing

For instance, they are conducting training for the population. When we talk about NATO countries, we think of a strong, powerful army. However, the Alliance does not have experience in conducting land wars. Right now, many of our military personnel are undergoing training abroad, and even NATO generals admit that they can learn more from Ukrainians than vice versa. Because currently, there is only one country in the world that can resist Russia - and that is Ukraine. Only we have the experience of resisting such a powerful aggressor. So if NATO sees Russia as an enemy, they are definitely interested in having Ukraine as, if not a member, at least a strong ally.

Photos from a private archive

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A TV host, journalist and author of over three thousand materials on various subjects, including some remarkable journalist investigations that led to changes in local governments. She also writes about tourism, science and health. She got into journalism by accident over 20 years ago. She led her personal projects on the UTR TV channel, worked as a reporter for the news service and at the ICTV channel for over 12 years. While working she visited over 50 countries. Has exceptional skills in storytelling and data analysis. Worked as a lecturer at the NAU’s International Journalism faculty. She is enrolled in the «International Journalism» postgraduate study program: she is working on a dissertation covering the work of Polish mass media during the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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In 2024, Russia significantly expanded the network of «re-education camps» and increased the militarisation and indoctrination of abducted Ukrainian children. Each of these children, upon returning home, requires rehabilitation - receiving a complex of various forms of assistance. How many Ukrainian children were actually abducted by Russia, what they are taught in the «re-education camps», and what are the prospects for the return of deported Ukrainians - discussed in an interview with Olena Rozvadovska, the founder and head of «Voices of Children» Charitable Foundation.

Nataliia Zhukovska: On October 2nd, seven children aged between 3 and 14 were returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory. All of them were from the Kherson and Crimea regions. This was reported by the head of the Save Ukraine organisation, Mykola Kuleba. And at the end of September, according to the ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, nine children were also returned home. How many Ukrainian children in total have been abducted by Russia?

Olena Rozvadovska: According to open sources, Russia has deported over 700 thousand people. The official figure from the Ukrainian authorities is around 20 thousand children. This is the number we rely on. However, it is impossible to state the exact number. Since the war continues, there might be one number of children today and another tomorrow. We also do not have access to the occupied territories or Russian territory.

A woman greets her son, who has returned from the occupied territory. Photo: SERGEI CHUZAVKOV/AFP/East News

What happens to Ukrainian children in Russia?

Recently, together with the public association «Ukrainian Network for Children's Rights», the NGO «Regional Human Rights Centre» prepared a report based on specific cases. Our part focused on children's psychological support and rehabilitation after their return. Speaking generally about what happens, according to the children, the scenarios vary.

In some cases, there is group deportation, and they are placed in various child-like camps in Crimea or on the territory of Russia and Belarus. It is known that in the occupied territories of Ukraine, processes are underway to deprive parents of their parental rights according to Russian legislation

Children can be taken under the pretext of so-called threats to life or health without further clarification. Afterwards, they can be placed in foster families. All of this is undoubtedly illegal and constitutes a war crime, which the Ukrainian side is documenting.

How does the process of «liberating» Ukrainian children take place?

Our foundation «Voices of Children» is not involved in the return of children. In fact, each case is individual. There is no return mechanism, just as there is no mechanism for prisoners of war. Generally, the official sides cannot agree on the return of a certain number of children home. This is not that type of case. Russia does not recognise the fact that these are abducted or deported children. According to the Russians, they are rescuing them from shelling. For them, this is a «humanitarian mission». We, however, understand that this is abduction, forced deportation and russification of the nation on RF territory.

Olena Rozvadovska: «Russia does not recognise the fact that these are abducted or deported children». Photo: Telegram channel of Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets

As of today, it is the relatives of the child who is in Russia that go to retrieve them. Volunteers who work in coordination with the Ministry of Integration, the President's Office, the Ombudsman, and others assist them in their logistics. That is, the relatives themselves search for those children.

What is the greatest difficulty?

The greatest difficulty is that any person who goes to Russia for the child is in a high-risk zone. There is a chance that they may not return with the child because they could be detained. Moreover, the process always involves humiliating and difficult filtration procedures and an extensive number of various checks. The return process may take several weeks or even months. In one case documented in our report, a grandmother was ready to travel to Russia to get her granddaughter. The return of the child lasted 14 months. The woman faced 18-hour interrogations at the Russian border and threats. Russia hindered the process in every way possible. To delay the child’s exit from Russia, the grandmother was made part of a criminal case. The family was only reunited after a second attempt, and only after the girl’s mother reported the obstacles faced in returning the child at a UN Security Council meeting.

The logistics are also challenging. Typically, the journey to the occupied territories or Russia involves passing through several European countries

The difficulty lies in locating, verifying, and finding these children. It is all very monotonous and complex work. According to official statistics published on the «Children of War» website, 388 children have been returned to date. As you can see, the figure is not even in the thousands. The complexity lies in the fact that there is no organised return of, for example, an entire group of children from an institutional-type facility that was taken. However, the greatest difficulty is the time we lose every day. Children who were taken at 2,5 years of age are now 5,5 years old. They may not remember what happened to them. Moreover, for the child, this is already a trauma. The longer they remain in isolation and subjected to active brainwashing, the harder it becomes to bring them back. And we understand that this is exactly what Russia is doing.

In August 2024, 14 children were successfully returned to their homeland. Photo: Telegram channel of Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets

And of course, when children end up in Russian families and are adopted, these cases are even more difficult. Imagine yourself as a little three-year-old girl. You are brought into a family, and you adapt. At that age, it does not matter where the child lives because they do not understand the situation they have ended up in. They simply live.

In your recent report, you mentioned over 5500 clubs of military-patriotic education and hundreds of «re-education camps» operating in Russia and Belarus. How exactly are Ukrainian children re-educated there? How does indoctrination occur?

This research was conducted by the Regional Human Rights Centre. Their specialists describe the patriotism lessons that the children go through. In the curriculum approved by the Russian Ministry of Education, Ukraine is not depicted as an independent and united state. According to our colleagues’ research, propaganda narratives are embedded not only in textbooks but are also imposed during extracurricular but mandatory classes such as «Conversations About Important Matters» and «Lessons of Courage». The «cadet and Cossack classes» operate within schools, aimed at preparing students for military service.

One manifestation of political indoctrination is the activities of so-called patriotic and military-patriotic movements

In Russia, so-called «re-education camps» also operate. Russia spares no expense on their operation. They are very professional in their information warfare. This machine is in full motion at every level. Every teacher, adult, and school administrator knows where to get the «correct» information that needs to be conveyed to the children. And even if someone turns on the television, they will find confirmation of everything they have already been told. In these camps, there is a system of so-called patriotic education. They introduce children to their «heroes», teach them, and sing the Russian anthem. In doing so, they erase national self-identity. The Russians' goal is to make Ukrainian children see themselves as part of the Russian people.

What methods does Russia use on Ukrainian children to make them literally forget that they are Ukrainians?

It is primarily about psychological and moral pressure. Our psychologist, who worked with a boy who was returned to Ukraine, also spoke about how he endured physical abuse and torture. I know that human rights defenders are recording even more severe and horrific cases. The hardest situation in Russia is for those children who openly demonstrate their pro-Ukrainian stance. They are constantly subjected to moral pressure and intimidation. The Russians calculated that the children would break. They were constantly told: «No one cares about you, no one will come for you. You have been forgotten. If you return, you will be recognised as collaborators or as those who worked with Russia and will be sent to prison». The children, not knowing whether it was true or not, thought: «Maybe I really will be imprisoned for being in Russia?». Any scary thought can take root in a stressed mind.

Olena Rozvadovska: «The hardest situation in Russia is for those children who openly demonstrate their pro-Ukrainian stance». Photo: Telegram channel of Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets

Freedom House, together with ZMINA. The Centre for Human Rights and the Regional Centre for Human Rights presented new evidence to the International Court regarding the direct involvement of the Lukashenko regime in the displacement, political indoctrination, and militarisation of education for over 2200 children from occupied Ukrainian territories. How can this evidence contribute to the return of Ukrainian children?

Firstly, it is about documenting violations. Cases in The Hague can take decades to review. Despite this, someone must continue documenting these violations. It is also about increasing international pressure. If no one speaks about this, documents it, or submits it, it may seem like the problem is resolved, and there are no issues. This needs to remain in the public domain and be discussed at various levels.

Of course, we would all like for this to be resolved in one day, and for Russia to be excluded even from the UN. However, we understand that it cannot be done so quickly

I believe that it is absolutely the right path for both state authorities and public organisations to continue working on documenting, collecting violations, and passing them on to the relevant institutions. As a result of documented violations, arrest warrants have been issued for Putin and Lvova-Belova. I am confident that Russian sanctions will only intensify. It is important not to grow tired of this work. Every Ukrainian, at their own level, must shout about the genocide that Russia is committing in today's world, right in the heart of Europe.

What is Ukraine doing to ensure that Russia is held accountable under international law for the abduction and illegal adoption of Ukrainian children?

Ukraine is doing everything within its power. International coalitions for the return of children are being created. International groups of prosecutors and investigators are working to document information on violations. Ukraine is regularly represented on various international platforms.

Olena Rozvadovska during a speech at a meeting of ombudsmen from 16 countries, human rights defenders and diplomats in Vienna. Photo: private archive

A wide range of measures are being taken to hold Russia accountable for its crimes - and not only those concerning children. It is unfortunate that these processes are not as swift as we would like them to be.

Your foundation, «Voices of Children», has been active since 2015. How have these «voices» changed since Russia's full-scale invasion?

Since 2015, I have been working as a volunteer with children in the east of the country along the entire frontline, and in 2019, we officially registered as a foundation. There have been many changes over nearly 10 years. In 2015, I was alone, but now our team consists of 220 people. The difference is that in 2015, the war was confined to two regions, but today it spans the entire country. Another change is that as of 2019, we had between 50 and 100 children under our care in various frontline locations and just one psychological support programme. It was very localised and targeted work. We travelled to remote villages where buses did not go. After 24 February 2022, when drones and missiles began flying across the whole of Ukraine, the format of our work changed drastically. The frontline today is more intense and much larger in scale.

Children during sessions conducted by staff from the «Voices of Children» foundation. Photo: private archive

Today, our centres are located in the largest cities along the frontline - from Chernihiv to Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Mykolaiv. It is not easy to work there due to the constant shelling. However, the children living there need socialisation. Their schooling is online, and they do not go anywhere - so our sessions are a small escape for them. War, whether large or small, always impacts children.

Why do parents return with their children to areas under shelling despite the danger?

It is hard to understand, but that is how it is. Everyone has their own story. You cannot say that all people have lost their minds about returning to dangerous cities and villages. That is not true! Sane, healthy, and thoughtful people are returning. The reasons vary greatly. Many simply could not settle elsewhere. People leave, spend all their money on renting accommodation, fail to find work, and return. This is the reality for many families. Some remain or return to dangerous regions because they have bedridden parents they cannot leave behind. That is why I never judge these people, although I am convinced that it is wrong to remain under shelling, especially with children.

Psychologists from the «Voices of Children» foundation constantly work with children affected by the war. Photo: private archive

How do you work with parents who refuse to evacuate with their children from dangerous zones?

It is a difficult process. If adults do not want to leave the area, they simply sign a refusal to evacuate. Parents bear primary responsibility for their children. Often, they refuse out of fear. Here, the state has not done enough to ensure that everyone has a clear understanding of where these people are going. They need to have at least some certainty in emergency situations. There is another group of parents who simply abuse their position and manipulate their children. Generally, these are the adults who do not take care of their children and are not interested in saving their mental health and lives. The state mechanisms must also work in these cases.

These children need to be removed. This is the job of social services, but it is not easy for them to work on the frontline. Many factors have come together to create the situation as it stands

I remember one story where we moved a family with three children from a frontline village and bought them a house in a rear area. A year later, they returned to their village. In this situation, there was nothing we could do because we do not have the right to remove children from their families.

What is the current psychological state of the children? Does it differ depending on where they live in Ukraine?

Various factors influence the psychological state of children. Certainly, the place of residence plays a role. There is a difference between living in Uzhhorod and living in Zaporizhzhia. These are two completely different realities. Obviously, the more dangerous the area of residence, the more threatening the situation for their mental health. However, much also depends on the family. A child senses the anxiety of adults. Parents are the window to the outside world for children. It is not just the rockets that scare them during war, but also their mother’s reaction to them. The presence of education, peer groups and opportunities for communication also have an impact on a child's mental health. Children in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia suffer greatly. Recently, we gathered children’s dreams in Zaporizhzhia, and one girl wrote: «I want this online schooling to finally end».

A session with children conducted by the «Voices of Children» foundation. Photo: private archive

Our psychologists report that today, children are more frequently presenting with anxiety and depressive states, especially teenagers. Some children develop enuresis, hand tremors, and sleep disturbances. Others, due to stress or traumatic experiences, may exhibit eating behaviour disorders.

What do you think the state should do to work with children currently abroad, and how should they be brought back?

We understand that in addition to returning children abducted by Russia, we also need to work with those who are currently displaced abroad. Ukraine must be highly interested in ensuring that all working-age people, and not only children, return. For example, we often receive requests for online psychological assistance from parents abroad, as they are looking for Ukrainian-speaking specialists for their children. It is no secret that living abroad was a dream for some, but for many, it is not a fairytale.

A very large number of people dream of returning home. However, urging them to do so now is certainly wrong, as the war continues

For people to return, the economy must function, jobs need to be created, and education must develop. But first and foremost, the war must end with our victory.

Children at the «Voices of Children» camp in Zakarpattia. Photo: private archive

Even the country with the best economy in the world cannot function normally when drones hit schools. It is abnormal and wrong. Today, hubs need to be created so that people abroad can still feel connected to Ukraine and remain within the Ukrainian information space. Moreover, we must constantly keep the world's attention focused and, of course, talk about the fact that Ukraine alone cannot counter Russian propaganda and stop such a powerful enemy.

Main photo: AA/ABACA/Abaca/East News

20
хв

Olena Rozvadovska: «Whether big or small, war always affects children»

Nataliia Zhukovska
war, military

One of the most famous American generals, who has been acting as Senior Advisor of the American organisation Human Rights First since 2022, has diagnosed the situation of the West, Russia and Ukraine in the context of the war that has been going on for over two and a half years now in a Times Radio interview during a recent NATO summit.

What Russians are capable of

Hodges believes Russia has little space left for manoeuvring, as it can no longer lead Ukraine out of the war. Russian commanders and politicians with Putin as their leader, not caring about their soldiers, will continue sentencing thousands of others to death and disabilities day by day.

«Although, I do not think this will last infinitely, - the officer assesses. - Their human resources are limited. Even if we do not take the sanctions and their ability to transport oil seriously, I do not know if they will manage to hold on for two more years - also due to the lack of human resources and necessary components».

In the general’s opinion, the West will play a crucial role in accelerating Russia’s collapse if it takes the economic tools that have long been at its disposal seriously

At the moment, Russia is «doing what it can, waiting for us to let go of it and hoping that the potential Trump administration will make life easier for it». And this is approximately everything it can afford right now.

General Ben Hodges. Photo: press materials

Putin: calculations of a bad man

In Hodges's eyes, Putin is a highly intellectual person, though simultaneously evil, merciless and such that does not care for anything but keeping power. His hopes for Trump’s possible victory are well-known: he is hoping that the USA will stop supporting Ukraine and force it to sign a peace treaty on Russian terms. On the other hand, if Biden wins [read as: the Democratic party candidate, as the interview has been taken before the President of the USA withdrew from the presidential race - Edit.], Putin will act by the already familiar plan: continued acts of diversion in Western countries and intensified disinformation that is expected to undermine the trust of the free countries’ citizens in their leaders and democratic institutions.

Biden’s policy: «catching arrows»

Hodges admires Biden’s recent promises to send more anti-aircraft equipment to Ukraine: this is significant support that measures up to the real needs of Ukrainians defending themselves. But this only solves a part of the problem. «Killing the archer is much more effective than catching all the arrows he is shooting, - the general points out. - This support package helps catch more arrows but it does not in any way help kill the archer».

From the officer’s words, the Biden administration continues to impose a «terrible policy», according to which Ukraine can not attack Russian bases in Russia using, for example, the American ATACMS systems. In practice, this policy gives Russia protection for it to commit attacks on Ukrainian cities. Yes, the general is glad to see more «Patriots» and ATGMs but it still is not enough. «I do not know what has to happen for the White House to address supporting Ukraine in defeating Russia seriously. Putin sees that we are not doing everything that is needed. He still has a big buyer of his gas, India, therefore until we start seriously helping Ukraine defeat Russia, Russians will keep on bombing Ukraine», - he warns.

Excessive fear and virtual guarantees

Hodges would like to believe that, as allies and President Zelenskyy himself say, Ukraine’s path into NATO is truly irreversible. «The issue is that there is no movement on this path», - he says. Many politicians at the summit in Switzerland contemplated what they could do about it but nothing in this chatter seems to lead to imminent and irreversible decisions. Whose opinion is that? The USA’s and Germany’s, that continue to obstruct this question, being guided by excessive fear of Russia using nuclear weapons. «Until this excessive fear is conquered, nothing will change for the better», - the general says.

- What guarantees can NATO give Ukraine and how can it strike Russia diplomatically if it can not offer Ukrainians membership right now?

Although Hodges does not imply it directly, it can be understood from his words that in this situation - there are none. As there is no 100 per cent confidence that Ukraine will join NATO. Considering that the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 [in which the USA, Great Britain and Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for it becoming a non-nuclear-weapon state - Edit.] turned out to be an empty obligation - Hodges is not sure that the next similar commitments will be more trustworthy.

Soldiers of the 42nd brigade of the Ukrainian army checking their weapons for fighting Russian drones in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, June 24th 2024. Photo: Pablo Miranzo/Anadolu/ABACAPRESS.COM

If the West fails again

The general puts all his hope into the understanding of many countries that Ukraine can not lose, that it has to win because its defeat would be a catastrophe for the whole Europe and therefore for the world as well. Because if it were to happen, the following millions of Ukrainian refugees would end up in Poland and Germany, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers would be forcefully enlisted in the Russian army, increasing its potential.

If the USA fails - be it because of a new party in power (Trump’s party) or any other reason, fails because of not having done what is needed, - the threat to Europe would not diminish but increase

In any case, it would not be surprising if the USA and more - the so-called collective West, do not live up to the expectations. In the last decade, both failed many times. «In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, we did nothing. The same way, when Russians crossed the lines drawn by President Obama in Syria and when they invaded Ukraine in 2014», - Hodges points out. It is not unnatural that in 2021 preparing the invasion, and in 2022 performing it, Putin assumed that the West’s anger would not amount to anything once again.

Reanimate the deterrence

The American also lists some other shocking signs of the West’s weakness that convinced Putin he was right: the Trumpist attack on Capitol Hill on January 6th 2021, the chaotic extraction of American troops from Afghanistan, Germany’s inability to stop the construction of «Nord Stream-2» despite the Russian annexation of Crimea and a significant portion of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, President Macron’s statements about the «NATO’s brain death».

«You can imagine that amid all this the Kremlin thought: «Let’s finish this», - Hodges comments.

The war in Ukraine broke out because the deterrence failed. Therefore, it should be renewed because the world is an interconnected system. The USA’s economic flourishing, the USA President’s advisor on human rights points out, depends on the flourishing of Europe, and it is impossible if the Old Continent lacks stability and security.

Working visit of the President of Ukraine and the First Lady to the USA to take part in the proceedings of the 75th NATO summit. Photo: press materials

«If we help Ukraine defeat Russia, this will enable us to isolate Iran, and then North Korea, which will, subsequently, deter China. Because the Chinese will see that the West has political will, industrial potential and military capabilities», - Hodges states. The defeat of Russia also is the West’s only serious protection from isolationist Trump’s coming to power.And if Ukraine does lose, the danger of China coming to «scary decisions» will rise swiftly.

When Putin falls from the cliff

How soon the Russians reach the turning point of this war and for how long Putin will keep in power depends on the dictator’s closest associates. Because he only answers to them - the oligarchs and the closest Kremlin members, not the parliament, voters or journalists who ask uncomfortable questions on behalf of those voters, as it is in any normal country. So when these people understand that there is no longer a chance for Russia to win, they will «push Putin off of a cliff and dispose of him».

Yes, the Kremlin dictator has no serious reasons to believe he will lose yet. But the day he does will be the beginning of his end

Translation: Anastasiya Kanarska

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