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20
хв

James Hodson: «War is an economic action. To wage a prolonged war, a strong economy is essential»

The AI for Good Foundation CEO, James Hodson, shares with Sestry.eu his insights on developing Ukraine's economy during wartime. His projects – ranging from personal ideas to intergovernmental initiatives – focus not only on preserving employment but also on fostering new, innovative technologies. An example of such initiatives involves using algae to cleanse agricultural soils of heavy metals and radioactive elements after explosions

Olga Pakosh

James Hodson. Private archive

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Why do you and your organization show such interest in supporting and even developing Ukraine’s economy? I understand that your foundation supports the charitable organization "Economists for Ukraine," which unites experts from various countries to assist Ukraine in this area.

It is crucial to remember that war is an economic action. What does that mean? You have resources that need to be efficiently allocated to outmaneuver the enemy. Whoever uses their resources most effectively will prevail. A strong economy is essential for waging a prolonged war. People must remain productive, production capacity must be high, and society must function.

That’s why we look for ways to grow Ukraine's economy even during the war and maintain employment levels. One way to achieve this is by creating ecosystems where people can identify problems that need solving and work on them without significant capital or infrastructure investments. We provide laboratories, equipment, academic expertise, scientific experts, venture capital, and funding.

Ukraine's economy relies on external aid, but its defense is funded directly from its own budget. Thus, when the economy grows, more funds become available for the front lines. Conversely, if the economy weakens, so does the front

It’s a straightforward and direct relationship. So, if the Ministry of Economy approaches us with questions like how to increase tax revenues by 2025 or reduce debt burdens, we help find solutions because we have a network of economists and actionable ideas.

We engage in extensive work in the economic field, including sanctions and policy development. Having the right processes in place in society is critical – not only introducing the right technologies but also building the proper institutions and structures for this work.

What sectors of Ukraine’s economy are you focusing your support on today?

I’ve been to Ukraine four times since the beginning of the full-scale invasion – twice this year, once last year, and once in 2022. I’ve observed how the situation has evolved, how needs and dynamics have shifted. Initially, it was mostly about internally displaced persons – people relocating from one city to another. The situation was uncertain, and we didn’t know what to expect next.

By 2023, the situation had significantly stabilized. We could better understand where people could live, how to live and work, and how to build their lives amidst the realities of war. By 2024, however, we see more serious geopolitical shocks: uncertainty in the United States, hesitation from some European allies, tensions between China and Taiwan, and North Korea's involvement  –  all adding to global instability while Ukraine keeps holding on.

This pushes us to support Ukraine in the areas of greatest need, which extend beyond the economy alone. Sestry.eu has already written about our collaboration with the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and the Kyiv School of Economics.

The conference «Berkeley – Ukraine: Innovative Startup Hub» at the University of California, USA, 2024. Photo from the archive of Anastasiia Fedyk.

During my latest trip, I visited Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Vinnytsia. I also went to Mykolaiv and Odesa, as we have teams in all these regions. I try to visit every few months to meet with the teams in person, so they know we’re not just sitting on the other side of the world but truly care and want to see how programs are working. What’s effective, what’s not, what needs to change, what we should consider, and whether new opportunities have arisen.

In Kyiv, we’re opening a hub dedicated to what we call recovery science. Recovery science encompasses all innovations necessary for winning the war and building a strong post-war country. This includes infrastructure, clean energy, demining, restoring hospitals, and institutional rebuilding. It can also cover defense, such as drones, surveillance, and other wartime needs.

The second part of my trip focused on new initiatives. One of these is our collaboration with the Sumy city council to develop sustainable internet infrastructure.

Due to air raids, power outages, and disruptions in education, people in Sumy are increasingly forced to take shelter. Unlike Kyiv, where few people leave their homes in the middle of the night, in Sumy, this remains a necessity. This makes life, work, and education much more difficult in the city. The internet has become one of the primary tools for maintaining communication, sharing information, and understanding what’s happening. However, Sumy has faced severe challenges in ensuring internet access during the war. We are working with Cisco to bring new radio equipment to the city, expand the number of Wi-Fi hotspots, and provide free internet access.

In Vinnytsia, we are focusing on agrotechnology, creating an agrotechnical hub. Technologies from international partners will be consolidated in one scientific space in a region already rich in agricultural expertise. Vinnytsia is an agricultural city, as it has always been a farming region. It boasts some of the world’s most fertile soils – chernozems. It’s logical to tackle Ukraine’s agricultural challenges in a place like Vinnytsia. The idea is to gather all the necessary resources in this city, engage the community, young scientists, businesses, and universities. Vinnytsia is home to six universities, remarkable for a city with a population of 300,000!

We are establishing scientific and development centers where people can come together, generate new ideas, create businesses, and access all the necessary structures to implement those ideas. Often, when building a business, it’s challenging to find the tools, workers, and capital required. We aim to simplify these processes so that people can experiment, quickly test ideas, and bring them to market.

We already have over 100 international technology partners who want to come to Vinnytsia to test their developments and share expertise. University partners are also interested in collaborating with Vinnytsia’s agricultural researchers. We hope to create a very vibrant and productive community.

When do you expect the first results of your activities?

We anticipate that by June 2025, several projects will have already been launched, and the hubs in Vinnytsia will be operational, working with test farms around the city. We’re already introducing three new technologies into Ukraine’s agricultural sector, one of which is particularly interesting.

About the algae that cleans soil after explosions?

Yes, this technology allows for the rapid restoration of soil contaminated by explosions. Explosions on agricultural lands cause several problems. First, high temperatures create scorched areas unsuitable for farming. Second, explosive substances contain toxic chemicals hazardous to humans, such as mercury, cadmium, or even radioactive materials. This can render such fields unfit for cultivating food crops for over 10 years.

Sometimes you see photos of people growing cabbage or beets in abandoned tanks or near them. This is extremely dangerous, as such vegetables can accumulate toxins, causing long-term harm to health

One of our partners involved in the Vinnytsia collaboration developed a technology for cultivating special algae. These algae, similar to marine varieties, grow rapidly in industrial tanks through fermentation, allowing for the production of large quantities.

This technology facilitates soil detoxification by breaking down heavy metals and toxins. Thanks to it, the land restoration process is reduced from decade to three years. After this, the soil becomes suitable for agricultural production.

A tank in a garden near Kyiv. Photo: FB Luydmila Nishenko

Ukraine faces many challenges now. For instance, farmers’ fields still have active mines. There are also issues with logistics, safe grain storage, and other critical matters that need addressing.

Additionally, being a farmer in Ukraine is extremely challenging – it’s not a job where one can get rich quickly

Thus, it’s necessary to find balance and create solutions that help farmers, heal the agricultural system, and speed up recovery from soil contamination and the overall impact of war. The idea is to bring as many innovations and technologies as possible to agriculture.

In addition to the open projects in Kyiv and Vinnytsia, our ultimate goal is to establish similar centers in other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv. This is relatively easy to implement.

By the way, regarding Kharkiv. I wanted to ask you about the educational project you are implementing in this city. On your foundation’s page, I saw a call to support your initiative: only $35 – a safe learning opportunity for children in Kharkiv for one day.

Regarding Kharkiv, we are implementing a joint project with the Ministry of Education aimed at supporting schools and creating assistance centers for children. The idea is to modernize the education system, which in Ukraine has largely remained unchanged for a century. The war and the COVID-19 pandemic have further highlighted the need to adapt learning to contemporary challenges.

Many children are falling behind in their studies, especially in fundamental disciplines like reading, writing, and mathematics. The overall educational level has significantly decreased – by an average of two to three years compared to pre-war times. While there are many educational centers in Ukraine, most of them resemble childcare facilities. They offer a few hours of lessons, games, or English classes, which are helpful for the community. However, we aim to go further – to introduce new, effective approaches to education.

In collaboration with the Ministry of Education, we have opened educational centers in Kharkiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. These centers serve as platforms for experimenting with modern teaching methods. We’ve engaged international specialists in early childhood development, psychologists, and other experts to create innovative approaches. For example, my son in the United States attended a preschool that used the Reggio Emilia approach – an Italian methodology that teaches children to solve problems through collaboration in groups without direct teacher involvement. This approach focuses on fostering teamwork and collective learning.

Additionally, we work with children who have disabilities or have experienced significant trauma.

Some children haven’t spoken a word for six months after losing a parent on the front lines

Yet, after a few months of working with psychologists and other specialists, they begin to open up and talk again. Gradually, we involve them in group activities with other children, helping them share experiences and participate in learning. This is also an important lesson for other children: understanding that every member of society is unique and equally valuable, regardless of their life circumstances.

Our centers deviate from the traditional model where children simply sit at desks and listen to a teacher lecture for an hour – we strive to create an environment that fosters active learning and development.

Furthermore, we are developing educational materials for the Ministry of Education to make new approaches accessible for teacher training nationwide. Everything proven effective in our centers is formalized into methodological recommendations, explaining the necessary resources and including training sessions. We are currently building partnerships with pedagogical universities so that their students can join the work in the centers, gaining practical experience and new knowledge.

Gradually, though it won’t happen immediately, these changes will reach every school because I strongly support the idea of public education. I want to create systems that work for everyone. It’s very easy to open a private school with a new methodology, where only a small number of children will have access. It’s great – it works well, with the best teachers, technology – everyone’s happy.

But real change will happen if we can transform the system on a national level, though this will be very slow. That’s why I don’t claim we can make a big impact immediately, but it’s important that we have a mechanism for change within the education system.

The scope of your projects is impressive – ranging from economic initiatives and demining efforts to soil remediation and new educational methods. You work with city councils, ministries, and commercial enterprises?

At present, we have established partnership agreements and memoranda of cooperation with almost all key ministries in Ukraine: the Ministry of Culture, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Veterans Affairs, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Education and Science, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. Additionally, we have an agreement with the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People.

The Ukrainian government is unique in being easier to work with compared to many other countries' governments

Often, interacting with state institutions feels like talking to a grandparent – a slow and cumbersome process. But in Ukraine, there is a completely different approach: a lot of energy and readiness for change. This is driven by the need to survive. We have no choice but to look for new solutions, try new ideas, and implement them.

Photo: STRINGER / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP/East News

Although our organization is small, we strive to build as broad a network as possible with various ministries and individuals so they can reach out to us with requests or ideas where we can be useful. Our goal is to respond to needs and help address them. Large organizations handle global tasks – delivering hundreds of generators or millions of batteries, funding schools and universities. We cannot operate on such a scale – our approach is different.

We try to be the "glue" that binds new ideas and creates space for rapid testing. We assist without spending millions of dollars. Our value lies in bringing efforts together, promoting innovation, and finding effective solutions.

Do you plan to continue providing such extensive assistance to Ukraine until its victory?

Oh, I’m sure we will actively assist Ukraine for a long time after its victory. The issue is not only about military success. After the war ends, a tremendous amount of work will be needed to restore the country to full functionality, right? We’ll need to help Ukrainians who have gone abroad return. Estimates suggest that five to ten million people are currently outside Ukraine. I expect at least 10–30% of them to return – that's two to three million people who will need reintegration.

Additionally, infrastructure will need to be rebuilt. Preserving a strong democracy after the war will also be a crucial task. In such transitional periods, a lot can go wrong, so I believe our work in Ukraine will continue for a long time.

Personally, I am also involved in defense-related projects. I invest in and collaborate with companies developing military technologies. To be honest, I believe in only one end to this war: the complete military defeat of Russia. Without this and political changes in Russia, I see no real end to the war. At best, we will have a frozen conflict; more likely, an active hot phase where the roles of China, Iran, and North Korea will only grow.

Without Russia’s total defeat, it’s hard to imagine a happy ending for the world. Despite Trump’s statements, I don’t see how he can end the war by 2025, as he promises. Unfortunately, this will be a long fight. Many of Ukraine’s future resources have already been spent to defend the present.

I only hope we won’t sell that future for nothing by seeking a short-term resolution to the war. I believe Europe and the U.S. must seriously invest in Ukraine – providing proper protection for cities and creating opportunities for frontline advances. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two to three months.

Demining in Donetsk Oblast, 15 June 2024. Photo: STRINGER / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP
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Journalist, editor. She has lived in Poland since 2015 and has worked for various Ukrainian publications: «Postup», «Livyi Bereg», «Profil» and «Realist.online». She is the author of publications on Ukrainian-Polish cooperation, covering topics such as economic and border issues, cultural heritage and commemoration. She is also a co-organiser of journalistic initiatives promoting Ukrainian-Polish friendship. She has worked as a trainer for the EU programme «Women’s and Children’s Rights in Ukraine: Communication Component». Her interests include personal development and neurolinguistic programming, among others.

Support Sestry

Even a small contribution to real journalism helps strengthen democracy. Join us, and together we will tell the world the inspiring stories of people fighting for freedom!

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In January, another group assembled by Russian special services was discovered in Poland. It attempted to influence Polish elections by spreading disinformation. However, Moscow exerts its influence over European countries not only through such tools. As a result, pro-Russian sentiments in Europe are strengthening, and far-right political parties are gaining increasingly strong positions.

German politician («Alliance 90/The Greens»), MEP (2004-2019) and Vice Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom, Rebecca Harms, gave an exclusive interview to Sestry, discussing the biggest challenges the EU faces due to Russia’s actions and whether Europe is doing enough to counter them.

Russia’s Influence in Europe

‍Maryna Stepanenko: In June, the EU banned European political parties, think tanks and other organisations from receiving funding from Russia. However, are there loopholes that still allow Moscow to extend its influence over European countries?

Rebecca Harms: We have a new example based on an investigation by German journalists and disinformation experts. We know that since November 2024, a systematic campaign against German politicians has been underway. It is linked to the Russian troll factory once run by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. Investigators discovered that more than 100 fake websites had been created to conduct campaigns against Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, spreading grotesque and false information about them.

I believe something similar has been happening in most EU member states, ever since Russia decided to launch an information war and support anti-democratic and pro-Kremlin parties across the European Union

Russia is actively trying to influence countries such as Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova and Serbia through economic, political and military pressure. Why is it important for them to maintain a European orientation? How can Germany and the EU strengthen their support for these countries to achieve this goal?

We do not have a magic toolkit for these countries, but much depends on whether there is a critical mass of citizens and politicians within them who can resist. Take Armenia, for example. Pro-Kremlin and authoritarian leaders lost the elections, allowing Pashinyan and his government to come to power. This demonstrates a certain resilience, and the European Union should support it, including by keeping the prospect of Armenia’s EU membership open.

You also mentioned Moldova. Partly thanks to Ukraine’s efforts, it has not only gained the prospect of EU membership but will soon begin accession negotiations. In some cases, external support matters. However, in Georgia, challenges have increased following recent elections. Nevertheless, the European Union continues to use democratic and legal mechanisms to encourage Tbilisi to return to democratic governance.

Demonstrators hold signs in protest against the government's decision to postpone EU accession talks until 2028. Photo: GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE/AFP/East News

The rise of far-right sentiments in many European countries is often accompanied by pro-Russian rhetoric. How seriously does this threaten European unity and what actions can effectively counter these trends?

The European Union cannot win this battle against Russia alone.

Resilience is needed, and at times - resistance both in EU member states and in countries under pressure. At the same time, the EU can provide crucial support

We see this happening now, as the EU increases its involvement in the Balkans, as well as in Georgia and Moldova. Unfortunately, in Georgia, the EU took too long to respond adequately to the shifting priorities of the ruling party, which is controlled by a Georgian oligarch. At the same time, President Salome Zourabichvili, whom I greatly respect, also took quite some time to take a clear stance against the government.

The EU has tools to ensure fair elections, monitor voting processes and respond to cases of election fraud. We also have mechanisms to promote media freedom, institutional independence and the rule of law. These tools are stronger within the EU, but citizens of countries under Russian pressure are increasingly recognising their importance.

Take Serbia, for example. We are now witnessing a powerful public reaction against deeply rooted corruption, which is directly linked to President Vučić and his closest circle.

Russian disinformation and elections

Early elections will soon take place in Germany. Have you noticed any further attempts at interference from Moscow, apart from the campaigns initiated by «trolls»? How do they occur?

Recent investigations confirm that Russian-controlled «bot farms» and influencers are actively spreading disinformation through social networks, using both state propaganda channels, such as Ruptly, and direct online manipulation. In addition, influential politicians promote pro-Russian narratives through media appearances. Some act voluntarily, so to speak, on a public basis, while others are likely financed by industrial empires linked to Putin.

The rhetoric of these individuals questions NATO and the EU. However, the full extent of their influence will only become clear over time

Two parties in Germany - the far-right AfD and the new party of Sahra Wagenknecht (The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, - Author) - openly promote Kremlin propaganda not only concerning Ukraine but also against Europe and democratic institutions. It remains unclear whether they receive direct funding from Russia or only indirect support. Meanwhile, within major parties such as the SPD and CDU, remnants of the old camp of «Putin-Verstehers» (a derogatory term for German politicians and experts who sympathise with Vladimir Putin and claim that Germans should understand his position, - Author) still argue that Russia is an important partner for Europe's stability and unity. This position is based on the outdated Russlandpolitik (Germany’s policy towards Russia, - Author), yet it still holds some influence.

Why do pro-Russian or openly anti-European candidates - such as Zoran Milanović in Croatia or Călin Georgescu in Romania - find support among the population? Is it linked to growing scepticism towards the EU or the influence of disinformation campaigns?

Through social networks and pro-Russian media, directly or indirectly supported by Russia, propagandists manage to convince people that the problems in their countries - from healthcare to migration - are the result of poor EU governance and insufficient patriotism from their governments. This is particularly evident in the case of migration. For example, it was the Russian Air Force, not just the Syrian regime, that caused the massive wave of refugees from Syria. The same is happening today with refugees from Ukraine. Russian propaganda manipulates this issue, ignoring the obvious fact: people are being forced to flee precisely because of Russian bombings.

It is astonishing how easy it is today, using uncontrolled media and social networks, to make people believe lies. Europe is facing a problem that is almost impossible to solve

These so-called «social media» are not social at all - they are a hub for spreading injustices and disinformation, which have devastating consequences. However, when they first emerged, the left-liberal camp saw them as a «promised land» of freedom and equality, so these political forces resisted any regulation.

Now, the same people are demanding stricter rules, but it is extremely difficult. Young people who, for instance, use TikTok, believe that restrictions threaten their freedom, although in reality, it is about banning blatantly foolish content. Previous attempts to establish rules for digital media failed due to the resistance of major internet companies. Now, we face one of the biggest challenges - to finally implement the necessary regulations.

Anti-Putin demonstration in Berlin. Photo: IMAGO/Andreas Friedrichs/Imago Stock and People/East News

Poland has long been and remains one of Ukraine’s key allies. What risks does potential Russian interference in the May elections in Poland pose, and how could it impact support for Ukraine in the region?

Not only is Poland as a whole crucial for Europe, but so is Donald Tusk specifically. As a former President of the European Council and an experienced leader, he is a clear target for Russian efforts to undermine stability. Additionally, Poland is one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters and a key advocate for strengthening the EU’s military capacity, making it a priority target for Russian interference.

However, the Polish people must know that their newly elected democratic government, formed through a complex but legitimate coalition, is well-prepared to withstand this pressure

EU energy blackmail

Ms Harms, how successful have the EU’s efforts been in reducing dependence on Russian energy resources?

Compared to 2022, dependence has decreased. At least, according to the latest data I have seen in Germany, the situation has stabilised. Yet, if we had acted more consistently regarding sanctions, the result would have been better and faster.

It outrages me that «Rosatom» has still not been sanctioned. This company was part of nuclear terror from the first days of the war: the attack on Chornobyl, assaults and occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and now - strikes on energy infrastructure, which create enormous risks for nuclear power plants in Ukraine.

That is why every time I read positive articles about the nuclear industry in France, I am surprised that those who admire it do not mention its connection with «Rosatom». For instance, EDF, the French nuclear company, is one of its key clients, and the French energy sector remains significantly dependent on imports from Russia.

How can the European Union counter Viktor Orban’s blackmail, as he attempts to use the issue of Russian gas transit to weaken sanctions against Russia?

I believe that the European Union is capable of compensating for imports from Russia through other sources. Thus, this is a problem or a challenge that can only be resolved if Orban also wishes to resolve it. However, even Hungary can survive without Russian gas.

Ukraine’s EU membership disruption and the risks of prolonging the war

What mechanisms do you believe Russia is using to sabotage Ukraine’s European integration aspirations? Is the EU doing enough to stop these attempts?

At every event concerning Ukraine’s integration into the EU, I feel that this is the best decision I have ever witnessed. Although the EU opened its doors to Ukraine too late, it has finally happened - despite Russian aggression.

It was a bold decision both for Ukraine and for the European Union. We are now in the preparatory phase for opening the first stages of negotiations

Undoubtedly, Russian interference, disinformation and other problems exist. The European integration process is already complex. However, the war itself makes meeting the requirements even more difficult. Thus, we are facing a completely new integration process, and predicting its future is challenging.

We are now hearing many statements regarding the end of the war in Ukraine. Everyone is closely watching the actions of US President Donald Trump. While we do not yet have definite outcomes, in your opinion, what risks does a prolonged war in Ukraine pose to the economic, political and military stability of the European Union?

It is not only Trump who says it would be better if the war ended. In reality, those who have suffered, who have lost their families, homes and cities, understand far better why it is crucial for the war to end as soon as possible. They know this much better than Trump.

However, on the other hand, the conditions for a ceasefire or truce must be such that they guarantee Russia will not repeat its attack on Ukraine in the future. This is crucial both for the EU and for Ukraine

Everyone wants to move on to a period of recovery and reconstruction, but we are not there yet.

In Davos, President Zelensky stated that «Europe must establish itself as a strong, global and indispensable player». Can support for Ukraine be considered the key test for Europe as a global player?

Yes, I believe so. The European Union, particularly some leading states that stood in defence of Ukraine even before February 2022, has become a much stronger player in the field of defence and security. However, significant steps still need to be taken, and this has once again become evident after Trump took office.

It is disappointing to see that, despite all the discussions before his inauguration, Europe was not truly prepared for Trump’s return to power. Although the EU has made considerable efforts since 2022, it is still far from being able to fully protect the continent. NATO is the key player here, and Europe now needs to seriously invest in the North Atlantic Alliance and its own security and defence forces.

This is one of the most urgent issues, in my opinion. Unfortunately, if you look at the German election campaign, this issue has not been given enough attention. Even after nearly three years of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many politicians still hesitate to discuss these critical matters with their voters.

Cover photo: IMAGO/Andreas Friedrichs/Imago Stock and People/East News

The project is co-financed by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation as part of the «Support Ukraine» programme, implemented by the «Education for Democracy» Foundation

20
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Poland - the indisputable target of Russians. German politician Rebecca Harms on Russia’s information war in Europe

Maryna Stepanenko

Together with experts in combating disinformation, Sestry analysed the most common Russian narratives found in Ukraine, Poland, Germany and Europe in general. They examined how these messages are tailored for different audiences, the platforms where Russian propaganda is most frequently encountered, how to distinguish destructive content, and whether it achieves its goals.

Constructing Reality

Propaganda always strives to construct an alternative reality and aims to make it as simple as possible, explains Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Lidiia Smola:

- Let me give an example: for weeks, the idea has been spreading that Trump will prohibit the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Moreover, Trump’s extravagant statements provide grounds for various interpretations. This narrative, this framework about a ban on weapons for Ukraine, is continuously supplemented with informational messages.

This starts to destabilise society, making people think: that is it - Trump will come, and it will all end for us

The fundamental goal of Russians, continues Lidiia Smola, is to divide and demoralise:

- To demoralise the part of Ukrainian society engaged in volunteering, making them think there is no point in doing so. To demoralise those on the frontline, to sow discord with messages such as: while you are at war, those in the rear are having fun. That is, to create conflict between those fighting and those in the rear, between those who left and those still in Ukraine.

Russia is not just active, it systematically analyses all the sensitive points in Ukraine

Propaganda for Poland

When it comes to Poland, the current primary goal of Russian propaganda is to instigate fear, negative emotions and disinformation, says Director of the «Democracy and Civil Society» programme at the Institute of Public Affairs (Instytut Spraw Publicznych), Sonia Horonziak:

- This is achieved mainly through the dissemination of fake news online, styled to resemble authentic press reports. These news items predominantly concern Poland’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, the border situation, and the country’s internal affairs.

The strategic goal of Russian propaganda in Poland is to create a situation where, if not pro-Russian, at least neutral attitudes towards Russia prevail, alongside anti-American and anti-European sentiments, notes Michał Marek, head of the external threats analysis group at the National Research Institute NASK:

- Russia’s main objective is to withdraw Poland from the European Union and NATO, to ensure the absence of troops and bases of our Western partners. However, on the way to this goal, they pursue smaller objectives. For instance, they fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiments to make Poland and its government reduce support for Ukraine.

Do they succeed in this? Michał Marek believes not entirely. But where they do succeed, in his opinion, is in inflaming the issues that irritate both Ukrainians and Poles the most.

Propaganda Techniques

«Stop Supporting Ukraine» - this has been Russia’s main narrative in Germany for some time, notes Lea Frühwirth, Senior Research Fellow at the German Centre for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS):

- This can be presented in various forms: claims about the danger posed by Ukrainian refugees or assertions that continued support for Ukraine threatens the German economy. We also frequently observe content suggesting that supporting Ukraine places Germans under a direct threat of war.

Typical markers of pro-Russian content focus primarily on Ukraine, crafting a particular image of the conflict to dissuade people from supporting Ukraine, continues Lea Frühwirth. Another emphasis seems to be on attacks against the current German government, aligning with Russia’s goal of gradually destabilising the situation in Ukraine.

Putin uses various channels to influence people, including traditional television. Photo: Rex Features/East News

In recent weeks, Russia has applied a tactic in Ukraine’s information space which might be labelled as «mental fatigue». The idea is that a psychologically and emotionally drained Ukrainian society might eventually accept a frozen conflict and agree to territorial losses, notes Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Lidiia Smola. Russian propaganda attempts to place all responsibility solely on the Ukrainian authorities. While there are indeed many questions to be asked of them, the lack of effective communication, coupled with the absence of public and transparent discussions on significant issues, creates a space for Russian propaganda to act, the expert continues:

- And Russia focuses on this. Had the system of strategic communication at the governmental level operated effectively, had the media endeavoured not just to quickly fill the information space with provocative and manipulative headlines but aimed to inform society thoughtfully, the situation could have been different. Another issue is the credibility of so-called experts.

Nowadays, anyone can call themselves an expert, which completely undermines the notion of expertise

In Polish information space, false and fake news is most commonly disseminated online, especially on major social media platforms and far-right internet portals, says Sonia Horonziak, Director of the «Democracy and Civil Society» programme at the Institute of Public Affairs (Instytut Spraw Publicznych). Often, this information immediately provokes strong emotions, portrays the Polish government in an extremely negative light, and highlights events that adversely affect Polish society:

- Disseminated messages often combine partially truthful information or images but provide them with false context. Thus, we see an authentic photograph associated with a completely different past event.

Moreover, the role of artificial intelligence in creating increasingly sophisticated fake images or videos depicting certain events or individuals, often from the political world, is growing

From a structural perspective, disinformation campaigns such as «Twin» are well-studied and usually follow the same pattern, making them relatively easy to identify, notes Lea Frühwirth, Senior Research Fellow at CeMAS:

- For example, if a self-proclaimed news site appeared in my feed, resembling a well-known German newspaper but disseminating only overtly pro-Russian material, I would automatically become cautious.

Channels of Influence

There are several channels of fake communication in general, continues Lea Frühwirth. The first is the attempt to fill the information space with disinformation on topics of interest to Russia. However, it appears they focus more on the quantity of these messages than on their quality:

- To be manipulative, this content does not even need to contain outright lies. Simply highlighting one aspect of a problem while ignoring others, or pretending to be German citizens expressing concern while actually being part of a bot network, is also misleading. On the other hand, there are local pro-Russian influencers who repeat typical Kremlin talking points. Usually, we cannot determine their motivation - they might be paid or genuinely believe in it.

The war against Ukraine is one of the topics used daily by creators of fake news. This is detailed in a report by SCIENCE+, the largest journalistic network combating disinformation in Central Europe. In 2024, no new key disinformation narratives emerged, instead, existing ones were adapted to current events. The report records manipulations around the threat of war with Russia, societal divisions over positions on Ukraine, and the myth of a conflict between «the West» and «the East». These narratives became part of widespread attacks on democratic elections in Slovakia, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania.

Young people are most frequently targeted by disinformation. Most do not engage with traditional media and instead obtain information from unreliable influencers. This contributes to a tendency among the youth to support radical or populist politicians.

A striking example is Romania, where the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of presidential elections after President Klaus Iohannis declassified intelligence data showing that Russia had organised thousands of social media accounts to promote the radical pro-Russian politician Călin Georgescu through platforms like TikTok and Telegram. In 2025, presidential elections will be held in Poland. Russia will undoubtedly seek to exert influence, says Michał Marek, head of the external threats analysis group at the National Research Institute NASK:

- But in our current situation in Poland, the Romanian scenario is unlikely. They will not succeed in seriously influencing these elections.

Pro-Russian agents might have an impact on parliamentary elections. However, when it comes to presidential elections, I would not overestimate their ability to exert influence

Tactics, markers, and effectiveness of propaganda

Propaganda typically evokes extreme emotions, explains Sonia Horonziak, Director of the «Democracy and Civil Society» programme at the Institute of Public Affairs (Instytut Spraw Publicznych):

- You should ask yourself why you have not heard this information on public television or radio. Secondly, you should verify this information through various official sources. Most often, such information is not confirmed in any way. Some social networks also add contextual information to certain content, which can influence its perception. It is always worth searching for additional context.

Among the popular tools of Russian propaganda are aggressive rhetoric, threats, intimidation and nuclear blackmail. During the so-called year-end summary, the Russian president reiterated the claim that there are no air defence systems capable of intercepting the «Orieshnik» missile. According to Putin, even the missile defence systems in Poland and Romania would not intercept this missile. However, there is a percentage of people in Poland under the influence of Russian propaganda who might take such threats seriously and perceive other Russian narratives as real, says Michał Marek, head of the external threats analysis group at the National Research Institute NASK:

- Overall, the Polish society does not seem to fear this. It is clear that for many Poles, the war in Europe is perceived as a reality - in Europe, meaning between NATO and Russia. But the threats themselves, the «Orieshnik» topic, are not a factor widely believed by us Poles. Russians have been trying to frighten us for years - with nuclear strikes, with claims we would freeze to death without Russian gas.

So new threats are mostly viewed as just another scare tactic. The effectiveness of such Russian propaganda, frankly speaking, is not very high

Critical thinking

Anyone can fall into the trap of propaganda, says Lea Frühwirth, Senior Research Fellow at the German Centre for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS):

- Human information processing is imperfect. It is not a pleasant thought, but it is the first step to awareness. We all need to establish a basic level of awareness and critical thinking. I would recommend using reliable and authoritative media outlets that adhere to journalistic standards to stay informed about what is happening in the world. Social media, on the other hand, is an information sphere where we must be prepared to encounter misleading content. If you notice something suddenly causing you excessive emotions, it is worth taking a step back and evaluating rationally to avoid contributing to the spread of fake news.

Among the popular tools of Russian propaganda are aggressive rhetoric, threats, intimidation and nuclear blackmail. Photo: Shutterstock

Russian propaganda typically divides the world into «black» and «white», «us» and «them», attempting to impose this division on Ukrainians. A characteristic approach is the emotional pressure - all these visualisations, publications of videos showing killed Ukrainian soldiers, notes Lidiia Smola, Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute:

- A marker of propaganda is that you are urged to act impulsively and emotionally. For example, you go to social media and see a photo of an unfamiliar person appealing emotionally, for instance, «like this post because I am going to the frontline». And such posts then garner thousands of likes. Why? Because people want to feel part of something important. However, how these pages are used later and what is disseminated through them is rarely considered.

That is why it is crucial to critically evaluate resources and not succumb to manipulative calls for immediate action

For Ukraine, the factor of despair, constantly fuelled by hostile propagandists, is also significant. This is the narrative of an unbeatable Russia, notes Lidiia Smola:

- It works through emotional swings: from a state of sharp excitement to depression, when people write: everything is lost, we cannot win, Russia is winning. In such cases, I always ask where Russia was in 2022 with all its powerful and prepared army, and where it is now.

This project is co-funded by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation under the «Support Ukraine» programme implemented by the «Education for Democracy» Foundation

 

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The war of narratives: how Russia manipulates the information space in Ukraine and Europe

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