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20
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«The gangrene called Russia has to be amputated today», - volunteer Oresta Brit

«We are the people who have to end this war. I do not want my children and grandchildren to experience anything like this. I do not want to live in constant anticipation of our neighbour attacking us again», - head of BON Charity foundation Oresta Brit on helping the Armed Forces of Ukraine, volunteers’ fatigue and Ukraine after the victory

Nataliia Zhukovska

Oresta Brit, a volunteer and the head of the BON Charity Foundation. Photo: Kateryna Kryuchkova

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Oresta Brit - a volunteer with over a decade of experience, head of the BON Charity Foundation and a former advisor to Valeriy Zaluzhnyy. Before 2014, she studied at the Sorbonne and worked as a runway model in Paris. Returned to Ukraine at the beginning of the Revolution of Dignity. She has 4 degrees, and speaking both English and French, she tells the foreigners all the truth about the bloody war in Ukraine at every opportunity. She worked in crisis management and attracting foreign investments into Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, she left the business and devoted herself completely to aiding the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Nataliia Zhukovska: Oresta, you have been volunteering for over 10 years now. What do soldiers ask for most often? What does the frontline need the most today?

Oresta Brit: If I were to summarise my activities over the past 10 years, from 2014 to 2016 I was exclusively focused on helping the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Later, the number of requests from them decreased because the state began to take over the process of supplying the military. And, of course, the accompanying needs of the civilian population were also taken into account by us. In general, the charity foundation was a hobby for me in my free time from work and business. Since 2014, we, the volunteers, have become adaptable to changes and challenges and have even learned to anticipate needs. Overall, our work extends to many different areas that we initiated simultaneously at the start of the large-scale war.

We try our best to support the country in its difficult times. We cover «gaps» and needs until all the relevant state institutions get on a military footing and work like clockwork

However, this charitable activity should not reach the point where the state openly leeches on it. After all, we should have already shifted to a military footing a long time ago. The only things preventing this are corruption and unhealthy competition. As for needs, the largest portion of expenses goes towards purchasing electronic warfare equipment and microchips for FPV drones. This is what saves our military on the frontlines. There are constant requests for vehicles - they are expendable items. It must be acknowledged that the Russian army is launching on an industrial scale what we are doing on our knees. And in this, we are indeed losing.

What is the goal and the mission of the BON Charity Foundation that you founded?

Today, we help both the army and the civilian population. The mission of our foundation is to accelerate Ukraine's victory and to begin cultural and educational activities around the world. You know, the Charity Union of the Nation (Благодійне Об’єднання Нації - BON) is like a community. It is not a foundation of a single person. Every volunteer feels their responsibility and knows their sphere of authority.

Oresta Brit with children of fallen soldiers. Photo: private archive

We give many interviews to foreign media in English and French. We try to instil the correct narratives abroad. We show that this genocide has been going on not for 11 years, but for hundreds of years, and the methodology of exterminating the Ukrainian people is not much different nowadays. It's just that this time we are lucky that the world is becoming globalised and we have the opportunity to call attention to this, among other means, through the internet.

Concepts such as «fatigue» and «burnout» are familiar to many volunteers. Do you manage to avoid them?

Physical and moral fatigue, burnout - all of this is present, but I can not afford to stop because I am doing what inspires me and gives me energy. Charity is the best niche you could possibly preoccupy in modern Ukraine, especially in recent years. As for physiological burnout, it can happen. Therefore, we have a programme within which we send volunteers for health check-ups. But this need exists for civilians even during peaceful times.

As long as we have adrenalin, we hold on. Once the acute phase subsides though, it will be really hard for us

Do you have to visit the frontlines a lot?

Now my trips to the frontline involve solving crisis issues or delivering items not accepted by mail. I travel on my own, without an escort. Only I know where and when I am going.

There was an incident in 2022 when you almost died during a trip to the front. It was near Bakhmut. What happened then?

While I was driving to the military, Russians began to break through on that section of the frontline. As soon as I reached my destination, a close-range battle began - tank and rifle. It was a miracle that I was not shot not only by the Russians but also by our own military. I saw our guys shooting along the road. I asked: «Where should I jump out of the car?». And they shouted: «What do you mean jump out? Just drive away from here». These were assault troops near Bakhmut's industrial area. It took me 20 minutes to return to the city under fire. And then another 40 minutes to drive to Kostiantynivka from there.

Has this situation changed your desire to visit the frontlines?

I am still afraid of thinking about that story. The question of whether or not I should come to the frontline appears in my head every time. If there is no need, I do not go there.

Oresta Brit during one of her trips to Donbas. Photo: private archive

Which stories from your trips to the frontline have been the most memorable to you?

Honestly, nothing surprises or impresses me anymore. My body has switched to self-preservation mode. I've lost so many brothers and sisters-in-arms that I just find joy in everything there is to find joy in. I cherish every meeting, knowing it could be the last.

My body only reacts to joy and positivity. It's some kind of protective function

If you look through my social media, you'll see that I don't share any sad stories there. I confess it is my volunteers who go to the de-occupied territories where there are no intense battles. While I don't let them go to the frontline, they are the ones delivering humanitarian aid to those areas. I have distanced myself from such practices because I know I wouldn't be useful to the affected people. I would just cry and be anxious.

How does your family react to your trips to the frontline? Do they try to dissuade you or support you?

I have absolute support from my family. They are patient and respect everything I do. There is no resistance. My first trip to the frontline was in July 2014. My mother didn't know I had gone. Honestly, I didn't really understand where I was going either. My task was to deliver humanitarian aid to the Aidar unit and the 12th battalion. No one told me it was war. I realised everything when I reached the Luhansk region. I was a little scared, but it was too late.

Previously, you studied in Paris and planned to tie your life to the runway, but you chose volunteering instead. What influenced your decision to drastically change your life?

Let me say right away - there were no sacrifices. I had a great time marching on the runway from 14 to 22 years old. I worked for very prestigious agencies in Paris. However, at 22, I chose education because pursuing a degree at the Sorbonne (a public university in Paris. - Author) and working as a model was an impossible combination. Thanks to my parents, I learned to set priorities correctly.

Oresta Brit working as a model in Paris. Photo: private archive

Moreover, I never planned to become French or to stay in France. You know, everything in my life happens very timely. Studying abroad gave me a quality education and contacts that are now very useful. I am a crisis manager. My profile is in public relations and mediation. Now I am successfully using the knowledge I gained to fight against the aggressor.

I have never regretted returning to Ukraine. Over the years, I have acquired a wonderful new hobby called «charity»

Everyone was surprised why I returned, and no one realised how beautiful this country is, how wonderful our way of life is, and how diverse our regions are. You can go to both the mountains and the sea without leaving Ukraine.

You often communicate with foreigners. What do you try to tell and convey to them? How do they react to what they hear?

We are still losing the information warfare. When communicating with foreign businesses and on a diplomatic level, I try to convey to them the scale of the tragedy we are experiencing. So that everyone not only knows how heroic Ukraine is but also understands from our experience how to avoid this tragedy in their own country. Because this gangrene called Russia will only continue to spread if it is not amputated right now, at these stages.

Everyone must understand that the war is close by, not somewhere far away. Today, Ukrainians are protecting the world from great evil and terror

And this is precisely the message I manage to convey all the way from Washington to the Netherlands and France. I am often invited to various French channels because the French want to hear the opinion of an unbiased Ukrainian who does not belong to any political party.

Did you foresee a full-scale war in the middle of Europe? Where were you when it started?

On February 24, I was in Lithuania, registering our foundation. I immediately bought a car for the Armed Forces and headed towards Ukraine. We didn't know exactly when it would start, but we clearly understood that something was going to happen. And I feel the same now, realising the catastrophe that could happen in Europe. Because, in reality, there is no war in Ukraine; we have a special state of events. I predict the same special state in Europe. It's not about an invasion but about conducting remote military actions, including missile attacks.

You were an advisor to the former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. How did you assist him without being a military person?

I am a person to whom the tactics of waging war are distant, but I have been closely communicating with the army for quite some time. Over the years, I have gained unprecedented trust among the military. In our times, this is worth its weight in gold. It was my international administrative resources and the unprecedented trust of the army that led the then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to the idea that it might be worthwhile to take me on as an advisor. But in fact, these were not pieces of advice from my side. I very rarely communicated with him because I understood the level of his busyness. But at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he did a very appropriate thing - he connected me with the responsible persons for different areas. And it was with them, side by side, for two years, that we kept our fingers on the pulse, synchronised our efforts and resolved pressing issues. As a result, I reported on our achievements, trips to the front and some weak points to the Commander-in-Chief. So, I was more of a reporter. If the level of the problem that needed to be solved was below the Commander-in-Chief, we did not take it to him. If his help was needed, then, of course, I went to him.

Oresta Brit with the former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Photo: from Oresta Brit’s social networks

Do you still maintain contact with Valerii Zaluzhnyi?

Yes, of course. I was friends with Valerii Fedorovych, not just with the Commander-in-Chief. I am acquainted with his wife and have great respect and affection for the couple. Olena is a very worthy woman with a sense of dignity. She has stood side by side with her husband throughout the full-scale war. She is a true general's wife. I wouldn't wish on anyone the things they have gone through during this time. The level of responsibility and both psychological and physical stress they have endured is something not everyone can withstand.

How has the war changed you?

I wouldn't say the war has changed me. Maybe it has revealed my resilience. I can't say that I have flourished over these two years. The war has definitely taken a physical and psychological toll on all of us. Unlike myself, I feel sorry for those who had an awakening, who had to break themselves one morning. Those who used to love the Russians but now fiercely hate them. Because hatred is a feeling that destroys. I have never compared Ukrainians and Russians. They have always been a completely foreign nation to me.

I was born in 1990, and my conscious life has been spent in a whole, independent Ukraine. I am not ready to change that

What do you think we should prepare for? How long will the war last?

You know, we are prone to forgetfulness. We will begin to forget what is happening today, and it must not be allowed. Today's events should be etched in memory of many generations. We must write history correctly, monitor it, and ensure that heroism is not attributed to those who do not deserve it. We must do everything to ensure that Russians, on a genetic level, understand that Ukraine is a taboo territory, better left untouched. We must end this war ourselves. I don't want my children and grandchildren to experience anything like this.

I don't want to live in constant anticipation of our neighbour attacking us again. We must change this

Have you thought about the future? Do you plan to live abroad, where you successfully established yourself at one time, or in Ukraine?

I can live anywhere. The main thing for me is that there is order in Ukraine. Today, I cannot leave Ukraine for long periods of time. My maximum is two weeks. Last year, I went to the sea just to get some sleep, and after two weeks, I was literally running back. I want my children to see the world and feel at home everywhere. So, I don't think I will limit myself to just Ukraine. I have a rather international family, and wherever it is warm and nice, that's where I will be. But all this will only be after our victory.

Oresta Brit: «I am confident that most Ukrainians will come home, and Ukraine will once more become a flourishing country». Photo: private archive

How would you like to see Ukraine after the war ends?

I would like to see Ukraine with an idea, self-identification and without an inferiority complex. I would like it to be Ukrainian-speaking, with a decent level of education, and not a victim of populism. In other words, just like in all civilised countries, we shouldn't bother ourselves with questions like who our ministers are and where they are vacationing. I truly want to see Ukraine as civilised and accomplished. We have prosperous resources, and I would like to see them utilised. And I want this right of utilisation to be in the hands of Ukrainians, not those who are now, in these difficult times, trying to come in and seize a monopoly. I am confident that most Ukrainians will return home, and Ukraine will once again become a prosperous, peaceful state. But this will take time. Today, we need to unite and help the country not only to endure but to win.

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A TV host, journalist and author of over three thousand materials on various subjects, including some remarkable journalist investigations that led to changes in local governments. She also writes about tourism, science and health. She got into journalism by accident over 20 years ago. She led her personal projects on the UTR TV channel, worked as a reporter for the news service and at the ICTV channel for over 12 years. While working she visited over 50 countries. Has exceptional skills in storytelling and data analysis. Worked as a lecturer at the NAU’s International Journalism faculty. She is enrolled in the «International Journalism» postgraduate study program: she is working on a dissertation covering the work of Polish mass media during the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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Lyuba Shipovich drones UAV

Lyuba Shipovich had been living in the United States since 2008, but after the beginning of the full-scale war, she returned to Ukraine. Lyuba is a co-founder of the «Razom for Ukraine» public organisation, and since 2023, the founder of the «Dignitas» charitable foundation, which takes care of military and veteran projects, including providing the army with UAVs and training drone operators. Last year, Shipovich was listed in the TOP 50 Ukrainian female leaders according to Forbes magazine.

Drones for the frontlines

Nataliia Zhukovska: Lyuba, the main area of your work is unmanned technologies: surveillance and combat drones. What is the real situation with military units being provided with UAVs today?

Lyuba Shipovich: It is about technology in general. Apart from unmanned vehicles, there is also software, situation awareness, combat control systems etc. As for the drone supply, the state is now buying them. Yes, not yet in a sufficient amount but they started doing it. However, we still lack the infrastructure for these drones. I am talking about antennas, ground control stations, portable power stations, tablets, 3D printers for explosive components of air-dropping systems. Unfortunately, this whole infrastructure is not funded by the state at all at the moment. The funding comes either from foundations or the units raise the money for this themselves.

The drone does not fly by itself. There also have to be glasses, RCs, antennas, charging devices, tablets, retranslators

What has to be done to ensure there are enough drones on the frontlines?

If we compare 2022, when there were no drones at all, to the situation now, it is significantly better. According to the prime minister, 40 billion hryvnias have been dedicated to purchasing unmanned systems this year. This already is an improvement. But it is not enough. When the President is talking about a million drones, it sounds like a lot. In reality, however, we calculated that such an amount would only be sufficient for three months in today’s frontline and combat intensity. Therefore, a million - is, in essence, a fourth part of the yearly demand.

We are engaged in an intense war, the largest drone war in the world in the history of humanity. Moreover, due to the frequent lack of ammunition, drones often replace artillery. Western countries were not prepared for a large-scale land war. NATO's doctrine is to gain air superiority. However, we are conducting a large-scale land war. Even the combined NATO countries cannot supply it with enough ammunition. On one hand, they lack the capacity, on the other hand, political and bureaucratic processes are an obstacle. We cannot rely solely on the help of our Western allies.

We must invest in our own production. And what we are doing quite well is primarily the production of unmanned technologies
With the Ukrainian military

It is known that Ukraine still depends on China for some components necessary for drone production. And last year, the Chinese already imposed certain export restrictions. How do you assess the risk that at some point they might completely «tighten the screws»?

We need to look for alternatives. China is the cheapest and largest manufacturer, but fortunately, not a monopolist. There are other manufacturers in Central Asian countries. Factories are also being built in Europe and the USA. And, of course, we need to pay enormous attention to localising the production of components. We should produce in Ukraine everything that can be produced here, even if it is more expensive. Because during the war, the cost is not evaluated purely based on the economic factor. There is also the factor of national security. Currently, there are several hundred stable productions in Ukraine. However, very few of them scale up production capacities because they do not have guarantees that orders will be consistent.

The state should enter into medium- to long-term contracts with manufacturers for procurement. If the contract is at least three years, it will be of interest to the manufacturer to invest in their business

This is probably the biggest problem. And if we talk about manufacturers in European countries, they generally want 8- to 10-year contracts. After all, these are capital investments in production lines, expansion of facilities, and so on.

Lyuba, you have been involved in volunteer work since 2014. It was then that the charitable foundation «Razom for Ukraine» was established in the United States. You are one of its co-founders. Since February 24, over the course of a year, you have managed to raise 68 million dollars. How did you achieve that?

Over 60 per cent of the funds came from small donations from people, mostly Americans and Canadians. They contributed 10, 20, 100 dollars to help the Ukrainian army. There were also corporate donations. Up to ten corporations donated 1 million dollars each. These were quite well-known companies worldwide that often wished to remain anonymous. I attribute this level of activity among foreigners to the fact that, at that time, Ukraine was at the top of all the news. It was a natural impulse to help in the fight against injustice.

It is also important to understand the American culture, where volunteerism is instilled from a young age. It is an integral part of life. There are even special days of the year, such as Giving Tuesday, that unite people to help each other. Currently, this support has decreased significantly, partly because Ukraine has disappeared from the news. Last December, I travelled to the United States, where Americans asked me, «Is there still a war going on?» If it is not shown in the news, it seems like it is over. But it is the same as Ukrainians not knowing what is happening in other countries. For example, in December, an important news story was about Venezuela. But if you ask Ukrainians what happened there, many would say, «Where is that?» When something is not in the news, it feels like it does not exist.

Support from the «Dignitas» charitable foundation

Last year, the team that worked on military and veteran projects within «Razom for Ukraine» separated into a new foundation called Dignitas. Why did this happen?

Out of the 68 million dollars that we managed to raise during the first year of the full-scale war, 45 million went to support the military. Specifically, this included the purchase of tactical medicine, drones, radios, power stations and so on. Meanwhile, the organisation also had humanitarian programs. Towards the end of 2022, discussions began about reducing military aid and redirecting more funds towards support and rebuilding efforts. At that time, I was the only board member based in Ukraine - all others were in the United States.

I tried to convey to people that it was still too early to focus on rebuilding Ukraine and that investment in defence was necessary. Because if we do not destroy the Russian tank, it will continue to wipe our cities off the map. Consequently, the rebuilding would become a never-ending process

It was at this stage that certain differences began to emerge. It became increasingly difficult to advocate that the funds were needed specifically for the military. After consulting with my team, we decided to separate into a new foundation, where it is clearly stated in the charter that we are a foundation for technological assistance to the security and defence forces, as well as veterans. We started again with zero dollars in our account.

Who forms the «core» of your team?

All those who had worked with us on military and veteran projects since 2014. The largest initiative, «Victory Drones», is led by Mariya Berlinska. It is an ecosystem for training the military in technology, specifically drone operators for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SES), and medical services in cooperation with the General Staff. There is also the «Fierce Birds» project, which supplies strike drones to the front line. It is led by Katya Nesterenko, who had worked for many years in the «Isolation» project and is very knowledgeable and understanding of the Donetsk region.

During military technology training

There is a project called «A Thousand Drones», which primarily focuses on reconnaissance drones. For example, in the United States, we are not allowed to raise funds for strike drones. Therefore, we have split the fundraising efforts: we collect funds for strike drones in Ukraine and for reconnaissance drones abroad.

There is also the «Fly» project, within which military personnel in rehabilitation departments are taught to operate FPV drones. This project is led by Dana Yurovich, who had previously worked for many years with the Ministry of Health team under Ulana Suprun (acting Minister of Health of Ukraine from 2016 to 2019) and on various international projects. In the tenth year of the war, volunteering needs to be professional. Yes, there were periods when everyone was doing everything when tourniquets and drones were bought indiscriminately and without understanding. But in reality, such an approach is an inefficient use of financial resources, which are already quite limited. Everyone should focus on their area of expertise.

For example, everyone knows that they need to buy a Mavic drone. However, not all understand that there is a whole line of them with different characteristics and firmware. As a result, people spend money on the Mavic 3 Classic, which is often unsuitable for use on the frontlines. But if a little more money were added, another drone could be purchased that would definitely be useful. There have even been cases where drones were bought and handed over to the military without being reprogrammed, and without anonymised firmware, they revealed positions. So, sometimes it is not just wasteful, it can be harmful to the military. That is why we do not get involved in other areas. Our focus is on technology.

For a long time, you were involved in advocating for weapons for Ukraine. What was the most challenging part, and did Western politicians always listen to you?

I continue to do this work even now. Our American team regularly communicates with congressmen and attends meetings. This work does not stop. In 2022, it was challenging to convince American politicians that Ukraine would hold out. If you recall that period, what kind of weapons was Ukraine being given? It was Javelins and Stingers - not for waging war, but for guerrilla warfare. Only in May 2022, when it became clear that Ukraine was indeed ready to fight, did they start providing heavier weapons for conventional military operations. So, until the middle of 2022, it was a matter of simply convincing them that we could and would endure, that we did not need to surrender Ukraine along the Dnipro or agree to any peace deals.

We have shown that we are ready to fight. The Western politicians and voters believed in us
In Donbas

What do we need to do to prevent the weakening of support from Europe and the United States?

It seems to me that Ukraine has disappeared from the news in the United States. We are not acting proactively. Look at Russia, which has been developing a network of television channels around the world for over 20 years. They broadcast in different languages - Arabic, Spanish, English, French, German, and others - meaning they generate their own content. In addition, they have a whole series of entertainment programs. They attract viewers' attention with these, and then they broadcast news between them. And what kind of news do the Russians broadcast about Ukraine? The ones that benefit them.

Where does the Western consumer get information about Ukraine? Either from the infrequent news in Western media or from Russian TV channels. We need to pay more attention to the information space and understand that foreign consumers consume information in their own language. Not Ukrainian and not always English. There is a huge Spanish-speaking world that we do not pay attention to, and the Arab world, where we also have very little information. And to gain support in those countries from politicians, we first need to gain it from their voters.

Why are there political bargaining and debates in America right now? Ukraine is a bargaining chip because voters do not have a clear opinion about us. If all voters wanted to support Ukraine, it could be guaranteed that politicians would do the same. Because they listen to their voters, especially in America, where congressional elections are held every two years. It is a relatively short election cycle, so voters are listened to constantly. Moreover, our politicians often use Western media to fight among themselves. And it is important to understand that this does not benefit us either.

When Western consumers see our internal political games, they think the war is over because local politicians are competing with each other

The major goal of the state is Ukraine's accession to NATO. This would be the greatest security guarantee for the country. Do you believe in NATO, where everyone defends each other?

I have spoken with Poles on this topic quite a bit. They are confident that they will be the next target of the Russian Federation. But when you ask them if they would go to defend their country, the response is: «Why would we? We are in NATO, the Americans will come to protect us». That is the classic answer. They do not understand that the primary responsibility is to defend their own country. And this collective NATO agreement is not about sitting back while someone else comes to fight for you. It means that we all defend each other together.

Lyuba Shipovich: «Currently, only one country in the world can resist Russia - Ukraine»
In my opinion, Russia will not go into Poland next, but into the Baltic countries. And I think that Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians understand this very well. They also understand that they must rely on their own forces. That is why they are actively preparing

For instance, they are conducting training for the population. When we talk about NATO countries, we think of a strong, powerful army. However, the Alliance does not have experience in conducting land wars. Right now, many of our military personnel are undergoing training abroad, and even NATO generals admit that they can learn more from Ukrainians than vice versa. Because currently, there is only one country in the world that can resist Russia - and that is Ukraine. Only we have the experience of resisting such a powerful aggressor. So if NATO sees Russia as an enemy, they are definitely interested in having Ukraine as, if not a member, at least a strong ally.

Photos from a private archive

20
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«We are in the biggest drone war in all history of humankind», - a philanthropist Lyuba Shipovich

Nataliia Zhukovska
war, military

One of the most famous American generals, who has been acting as Senior Advisor of the American organisation Human Rights First since 2022, has diagnosed the situation of the West, Russia and Ukraine in the context of the war that has been going on for over two and a half years now in a Times Radio interview during a recent NATO summit.

What Russians are capable of

Hodges believes Russia has little space left for manoeuvring, as it can no longer lead Ukraine out of the war. Russian commanders and politicians with Putin as their leader, not caring about their soldiers, will continue sentencing thousands of others to death and disabilities day by day.

«Although, I do not think this will last infinitely, - the officer assesses. - Their human resources are limited. Even if we do not take the sanctions and their ability to transport oil seriously, I do not know if they will manage to hold on for two more years - also due to the lack of human resources and necessary components».

In the general’s opinion, the West will play a crucial role in accelerating Russia’s collapse if it takes the economic tools that have long been at its disposal seriously

At the moment, Russia is «doing what it can, waiting for us to let go of it and hoping that the potential Trump administration will make life easier for it». And this is approximately everything it can afford right now.

General Ben Hodges. Photo: press materials

Putin: calculations of a bad man

In Hodges's eyes, Putin is a highly intellectual person, though simultaneously evil, merciless and such that does not care for anything but keeping power. His hopes for Trump’s possible victory are well-known: he is hoping that the USA will stop supporting Ukraine and force it to sign a peace treaty on Russian terms. On the other hand, if Biden wins [read as: the Democratic party candidate, as the interview has been taken before the President of the USA withdrew from the presidential race - Edit.], Putin will act by the already familiar plan: continued acts of diversion in Western countries and intensified disinformation that is expected to undermine the trust of the free countries’ citizens in their leaders and democratic institutions.

Biden’s policy: «catching arrows»

Hodges admires Biden’s recent promises to send more anti-aircraft equipment to Ukraine: this is significant support that measures up to the real needs of Ukrainians defending themselves. But this only solves a part of the problem. «Killing the archer is much more effective than catching all the arrows he is shooting, - the general points out. - This support package helps catch more arrows but it does not in any way help kill the archer».

From the officer’s words, the Biden administration continues to impose a «terrible policy», according to which Ukraine can not attack Russian bases in Russia using, for example, the American ATACMS systems. In practice, this policy gives Russia protection for it to commit attacks on Ukrainian cities. Yes, the general is glad to see more «Patriots» and ATGMs but it still is not enough. «I do not know what has to happen for the White House to address supporting Ukraine in defeating Russia seriously. Putin sees that we are not doing everything that is needed. He still has a big buyer of his gas, India, therefore until we start seriously helping Ukraine defeat Russia, Russians will keep on bombing Ukraine», - he warns.

Excessive fear and virtual guarantees

Hodges would like to believe that, as allies and President Zelenskyy himself say, Ukraine’s path into NATO is truly irreversible. «The issue is that there is no movement on this path», - he says. Many politicians at the summit in Switzerland contemplated what they could do about it but nothing in this chatter seems to lead to imminent and irreversible decisions. Whose opinion is that? The USA’s and Germany’s, that continue to obstruct this question, being guided by excessive fear of Russia using nuclear weapons. «Until this excessive fear is conquered, nothing will change for the better», - the general says.

- What guarantees can NATO give Ukraine and how can it strike Russia diplomatically if it can not offer Ukrainians membership right now?

Although Hodges does not imply it directly, it can be understood from his words that in this situation - there are none. As there is no 100 per cent confidence that Ukraine will join NATO. Considering that the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 [in which the USA, Great Britain and Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for it becoming a non-nuclear-weapon state - Edit.] turned out to be an empty obligation - Hodges is not sure that the next similar commitments will be more trustworthy.

Soldiers of the 42nd brigade of the Ukrainian army checking their weapons for fighting Russian drones in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, June 24th 2024. Photo: Pablo Miranzo/Anadolu/ABACAPRESS.COM

If the West fails again

The general puts all his hope into the understanding of many countries that Ukraine can not lose, that it has to win because its defeat would be a catastrophe for the whole Europe and therefore for the world as well. Because if it were to happen, the following millions of Ukrainian refugees would end up in Poland and Germany, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers would be forcefully enlisted in the Russian army, increasing its potential.

If the USA fails - be it because of a new party in power (Trump’s party) or any other reason, fails because of not having done what is needed, - the threat to Europe would not diminish but increase

In any case, it would not be surprising if the USA and more - the so-called collective West, do not live up to the expectations. In the last decade, both failed many times. «In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, we did nothing. The same way, when Russians crossed the lines drawn by President Obama in Syria and when they invaded Ukraine in 2014», - Hodges points out. It is not unnatural that in 2021 preparing the invasion, and in 2022 performing it, Putin assumed that the West’s anger would not amount to anything once again.

Reanimate the deterrence

The American also lists some other shocking signs of the West’s weakness that convinced Putin he was right: the Trumpist attack on Capitol Hill on January 6th 2021, the chaotic extraction of American troops from Afghanistan, Germany’s inability to stop the construction of «Nord Stream-2» despite the Russian annexation of Crimea and a significant portion of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, President Macron’s statements about the «NATO’s brain death».

«You can imagine that amid all this the Kremlin thought: «Let’s finish this», - Hodges comments.

The war in Ukraine broke out because the deterrence failed. Therefore, it should be renewed because the world is an interconnected system. The USA’s economic flourishing, the USA President’s advisor on human rights points out, depends on the flourishing of Europe, and it is impossible if the Old Continent lacks stability and security.

Working visit of the President of Ukraine and the First Lady to the USA to take part in the proceedings of the 75th NATO summit. Photo: press materials

«If we help Ukraine defeat Russia, this will enable us to isolate Iran, and then North Korea, which will, subsequently, deter China. Because the Chinese will see that the West has political will, industrial potential and military capabilities», - Hodges states. The defeat of Russia also is the West’s only serious protection from isolationist Trump’s coming to power.And if Ukraine does lose, the danger of China coming to «scary decisions» will rise swiftly.

When Putin falls from the cliff

How soon the Russians reach the turning point of this war and for how long Putin will keep in power depends on the dictator’s closest associates. Because he only answers to them - the oligarchs and the closest Kremlin members, not the parliament, voters or journalists who ask uncomfortable questions on behalf of those voters, as it is in any normal country. So when these people understand that there is no longer a chance for Russia to win, they will «push Putin off of a cliff and dispose of him».

Yes, the Kremlin dictator has no serious reasons to believe he will lose yet. But the day he does will be the beginning of his end

Translation: Anastasiya Kanarska

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