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The war of narratives: how Russia manipulates the information space in Ukraine and Europe

Direct threats to Ukraine with new weaponry - including «Orieshnik», suggestions to European countries that they might also be targeted, an extensive network of agents in Europe persuading governments to stop aiding Ukraine, discrediting the Ukrainian authorities and military - these are the key messages Russia has been advancing over the past six months

Kateryna Tryfonenko

Russia’s Manipulations: What is the Kremlin Doing in Europe? Photo: Shutterstock

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Together with experts in combating disinformation, Sestry analysed the most common Russian narratives found in Ukraine, Poland, Germany and Europe in general. They examined how these messages are tailored for different audiences, the platforms where Russian propaganda is most frequently encountered, how to distinguish destructive content, and whether it achieves its goals.

Constructing Reality

Propaganda always strives to construct an alternative reality and aims to make it as simple as possible, explains Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Lidiia Smola:

- Let me give an example: for weeks, the idea has been spreading that Trump will prohibit the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Moreover, Trump’s extravagant statements provide grounds for various interpretations. This narrative, this framework about a ban on weapons for Ukraine, is continuously supplemented with informational messages.

This starts to destabilise society, making people think: that is it - Trump will come, and it will all end for us

The fundamental goal of Russians, continues Lidiia Smola, is to divide and demoralise:

- To demoralise the part of Ukrainian society engaged in volunteering, making them think there is no point in doing so. To demoralise those on the frontline, to sow discord with messages such as: while you are at war, those in the rear are having fun. That is, to create conflict between those fighting and those in the rear, between those who left and those still in Ukraine.

Russia is not just active, it systematically analyses all the sensitive points in Ukraine

Propaganda for Poland

When it comes to Poland, the current primary goal of Russian propaganda is to instigate fear, negative emotions and disinformation, says Director of the «Democracy and Civil Society» programme at the Institute of Public Affairs (Instytut Spraw Publicznych), Sonia Horonziak:

- This is achieved mainly through the dissemination of fake news online, styled to resemble authentic press reports. These news items predominantly concern Poland’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, the border situation, and the country’s internal affairs.

The strategic goal of Russian propaganda in Poland is to create a situation where, if not pro-Russian, at least neutral attitudes towards Russia prevail, alongside anti-American and anti-European sentiments, notes Michał Marek, head of the external threats analysis group at the National Research Institute NASK:

- Russia’s main objective is to withdraw Poland from the European Union and NATO, to ensure the absence of troops and bases of our Western partners. However, on the way to this goal, they pursue smaller objectives. For instance, they fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiments to make Poland and its government reduce support for Ukraine.

Do they succeed in this? Michał Marek believes not entirely. But where they do succeed, in his opinion, is in inflaming the issues that irritate both Ukrainians and Poles the most.

Propaganda Techniques

«Stop Supporting Ukraine» - this has been Russia’s main narrative in Germany for some time, notes Lea Frühwirth, Senior Research Fellow at the German Centre for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS):

- This can be presented in various forms: claims about the danger posed by Ukrainian refugees or assertions that continued support for Ukraine threatens the German economy. We also frequently observe content suggesting that supporting Ukraine places Germans under a direct threat of war.

Typical markers of pro-Russian content focus primarily on Ukraine, crafting a particular image of the conflict to dissuade people from supporting Ukraine, continues Lea Frühwirth. Another emphasis seems to be on attacks against the current German government, aligning with Russia’s goal of gradually destabilising the situation in Ukraine.

Putin uses various channels to influence people, including traditional television. Photo: Rex Features/East News

In recent weeks, Russia has applied a tactic in Ukraine’s information space which might be labelled as «mental fatigue». The idea is that a psychologically and emotionally drained Ukrainian society might eventually accept a frozen conflict and agree to territorial losses, notes Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Lidiia Smola. Russian propaganda attempts to place all responsibility solely on the Ukrainian authorities. While there are indeed many questions to be asked of them, the lack of effective communication, coupled with the absence of public and transparent discussions on significant issues, creates a space for Russian propaganda to act, the expert continues:

- And Russia focuses on this. Had the system of strategic communication at the governmental level operated effectively, had the media endeavoured not just to quickly fill the information space with provocative and manipulative headlines but aimed to inform society thoughtfully, the situation could have been different. Another issue is the credibility of so-called experts.

Nowadays, anyone can call themselves an expert, which completely undermines the notion of expertise

In Polish information space, false and fake news is most commonly disseminated online, especially on major social media platforms and far-right internet portals, says Sonia Horonziak, Director of the «Democracy and Civil Society» programme at the Institute of Public Affairs (Instytut Spraw Publicznych). Often, this information immediately provokes strong emotions, portrays the Polish government in an extremely negative light, and highlights events that adversely affect Polish society:

- Disseminated messages often combine partially truthful information or images but provide them with false context. Thus, we see an authentic photograph associated with a completely different past event.

Moreover, the role of artificial intelligence in creating increasingly sophisticated fake images or videos depicting certain events or individuals, often from the political world, is growing

From a structural perspective, disinformation campaigns such as «Twin» are well-studied and usually follow the same pattern, making them relatively easy to identify, notes Lea Frühwirth, Senior Research Fellow at CeMAS:

- For example, if a self-proclaimed news site appeared in my feed, resembling a well-known German newspaper but disseminating only overtly pro-Russian material, I would automatically become cautious.

Channels of Influence

There are several channels of fake communication in general, continues Lea Frühwirth. The first is the attempt to fill the information space with disinformation on topics of interest to Russia. However, it appears they focus more on the quantity of these messages than on their quality:

- To be manipulative, this content does not even need to contain outright lies. Simply highlighting one aspect of a problem while ignoring others, or pretending to be German citizens expressing concern while actually being part of a bot network, is also misleading. On the other hand, there are local pro-Russian influencers who repeat typical Kremlin talking points. Usually, we cannot determine their motivation - they might be paid or genuinely believe in it.

The war against Ukraine is one of the topics used daily by creators of fake news. This is detailed in a report by SCIENCE+, the largest journalistic network combating disinformation in Central Europe. In 2024, no new key disinformation narratives emerged, instead, existing ones were adapted to current events. The report records manipulations around the threat of war with Russia, societal divisions over positions on Ukraine, and the myth of a conflict between «the West» and «the East». These narratives became part of widespread attacks on democratic elections in Slovakia, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania.

Young people are most frequently targeted by disinformation. Most do not engage with traditional media and instead obtain information from unreliable influencers. This contributes to a tendency among the youth to support radical or populist politicians.

A striking example is Romania, where the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of presidential elections after President Klaus Iohannis declassified intelligence data showing that Russia had organised thousands of social media accounts to promote the radical pro-Russian politician Călin Georgescu through platforms like TikTok and Telegram. In 2025, presidential elections will be held in Poland. Russia will undoubtedly seek to exert influence, says Michał Marek, head of the external threats analysis group at the National Research Institute NASK:

- But in our current situation in Poland, the Romanian scenario is unlikely. They will not succeed in seriously influencing these elections.

Pro-Russian agents might have an impact on parliamentary elections. However, when it comes to presidential elections, I would not overestimate their ability to exert influence

Tactics, markers, and effectiveness of propaganda

Propaganda typically evokes extreme emotions, explains Sonia Horonziak, Director of the «Democracy and Civil Society» programme at the Institute of Public Affairs (Instytut Spraw Publicznych):

- You should ask yourself why you have not heard this information on public television or radio. Secondly, you should verify this information through various official sources. Most often, such information is not confirmed in any way. Some social networks also add contextual information to certain content, which can influence its perception. It is always worth searching for additional context.

Among the popular tools of Russian propaganda are aggressive rhetoric, threats, intimidation and nuclear blackmail. During the so-called year-end summary, the Russian president reiterated the claim that there are no air defence systems capable of intercepting the «Orieshnik» missile. According to Putin, even the missile defence systems in Poland and Romania would not intercept this missile. However, there is a percentage of people in Poland under the influence of Russian propaganda who might take such threats seriously and perceive other Russian narratives as real, says Michał Marek, head of the external threats analysis group at the National Research Institute NASK:

- Overall, the Polish society does not seem to fear this. It is clear that for many Poles, the war in Europe is perceived as a reality - in Europe, meaning between NATO and Russia. But the threats themselves, the «Orieshnik» topic, are not a factor widely believed by us Poles. Russians have been trying to frighten us for years - with nuclear strikes, with claims we would freeze to death without Russian gas.

So new threats are mostly viewed as just another scare tactic. The effectiveness of such Russian propaganda, frankly speaking, is not very high

Critical thinking

Anyone can fall into the trap of propaganda, says Lea Frühwirth, Senior Research Fellow at the German Centre for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS):

- Human information processing is imperfect. It is not a pleasant thought, but it is the first step to awareness. We all need to establish a basic level of awareness and critical thinking. I would recommend using reliable and authoritative media outlets that adhere to journalistic standards to stay informed about what is happening in the world. Social media, on the other hand, is an information sphere where we must be prepared to encounter misleading content. If you notice something suddenly causing you excessive emotions, it is worth taking a step back and evaluating rationally to avoid contributing to the spread of fake news.

Among the popular tools of Russian propaganda are aggressive rhetoric, threats, intimidation and nuclear blackmail. Photo: Shutterstock

Russian propaganda typically divides the world into «black» and «white», «us» and «them», attempting to impose this division on Ukrainians. A characteristic approach is the emotional pressure - all these visualisations, publications of videos showing killed Ukrainian soldiers, notes Lidiia Smola, Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute:

- A marker of propaganda is that you are urged to act impulsively and emotionally. For example, you go to social media and see a photo of an unfamiliar person appealing emotionally, for instance, «like this post because I am going to the frontline». And such posts then garner thousands of likes. Why? Because people want to feel part of something important. However, how these pages are used later and what is disseminated through them is rarely considered.

That is why it is crucial to critically evaluate resources and not succumb to manipulative calls for immediate action

For Ukraine, the factor of despair, constantly fuelled by hostile propagandists, is also significant. This is the narrative of an unbeatable Russia, notes Lidiia Smola:

- It works through emotional swings: from a state of sharp excitement to depression, when people write: everything is lost, we cannot win, Russia is winning. In such cases, I always ask where Russia was in 2022 with all its powerful and prepared army, and where it is now.

This project is co-funded by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation under the «Support Ukraine» programme implemented by the «Education for Democracy» Foundation

 

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Ukrainian journalist. She worked as the Chief Editor of the Ukrainian editorial office of RFI and in the international editorial team of TSN (1+1 TV channel). She was an international correspondent in Brussels and collaborated with various Ukrainian TV channels. She also worked in the news service of Ukrainian Radio. Currently, she is involved in information and analytical projects for Ukrainian YouTube.

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James Hodson innovations

Why do you and your organization show such interest in supporting and even developing Ukraine’s economy? I understand that your foundation supports the charitable organization "Economists for Ukraine," which unites experts from various countries to assist Ukraine in this area.

It is crucial to remember that war is an economic action. What does that mean? You have resources that need to be efficiently allocated to outmaneuver the enemy. Whoever uses their resources most effectively will prevail. A strong economy is essential for waging a prolonged war. People must remain productive, production capacity must be high, and society must function.

That’s why we look for ways to grow Ukraine's economy even during the war and maintain employment levels. One way to achieve this is by creating ecosystems where people can identify problems that need solving and work on them without significant capital or infrastructure investments. We provide laboratories, equipment, academic expertise, scientific experts, venture capital, and funding.

Ukraine's economy relies on external aid, but its defense is funded directly from its own budget. Thus, when the economy grows, more funds become available for the front lines. Conversely, if the economy weakens, so does the front

It’s a straightforward and direct relationship. So, if the Ministry of Economy approaches us with questions like how to increase tax revenues by 2025 or reduce debt burdens, we help find solutions because we have a network of economists and actionable ideas.

We engage in extensive work in the economic field, including sanctions and policy development. Having the right processes in place in society is critical – not only introducing the right technologies but also building the proper institutions and structures for this work.

What sectors of Ukraine’s economy are you focusing your support on today?

I’ve been to Ukraine four times since the beginning of the full-scale invasion – twice this year, once last year, and once in 2022. I’ve observed how the situation has evolved, how needs and dynamics have shifted. Initially, it was mostly about internally displaced persons – people relocating from one city to another. The situation was uncertain, and we didn’t know what to expect next.

By 2023, the situation had significantly stabilized. We could better understand where people could live, how to live and work, and how to build their lives amidst the realities of war. By 2024, however, we see more serious geopolitical shocks: uncertainty in the United States, hesitation from some European allies, tensions between China and Taiwan, and North Korea's involvement  –  all adding to global instability while Ukraine keeps holding on.

This pushes us to support Ukraine in the areas of greatest need, which extend beyond the economy alone. Sestry.eu has already written about our collaboration with the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and the Kyiv School of Economics.

The conference «Berkeley – Ukraine: Innovative Startup Hub» at the University of California, USA, 2024. Photo from the archive of Anastasiia Fedyk.

During my latest trip, I visited Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Vinnytsia. I also went to Mykolaiv and Odesa, as we have teams in all these regions. I try to visit every few months to meet with the teams in person, so they know we’re not just sitting on the other side of the world but truly care and want to see how programs are working. What’s effective, what’s not, what needs to change, what we should consider, and whether new opportunities have arisen.

In Kyiv, we’re opening a hub dedicated to what we call recovery science. Recovery science encompasses all innovations necessary for winning the war and building a strong post-war country. This includes infrastructure, clean energy, demining, restoring hospitals, and institutional rebuilding. It can also cover defense, such as drones, surveillance, and other wartime needs.

The second part of my trip focused on new initiatives. One of these is our collaboration with the Sumy city council to develop sustainable internet infrastructure.

Due to air raids, power outages, and disruptions in education, people in Sumy are increasingly forced to take shelter. Unlike Kyiv, where few people leave their homes in the middle of the night, in Sumy, this remains a necessity. This makes life, work, and education much more difficult in the city. The internet has become one of the primary tools for maintaining communication, sharing information, and understanding what’s happening. However, Sumy has faced severe challenges in ensuring internet access during the war. We are working with Cisco to bring new radio equipment to the city, expand the number of Wi-Fi hotspots, and provide free internet access.

In Vinnytsia, we are focusing on agrotechnology, creating an agrotechnical hub. Technologies from international partners will be consolidated in one scientific space in a region already rich in agricultural expertise. Vinnytsia is an agricultural city, as it has always been a farming region. It boasts some of the world’s most fertile soils – chernozems. It’s logical to tackle Ukraine’s agricultural challenges in a place like Vinnytsia. The idea is to gather all the necessary resources in this city, engage the community, young scientists, businesses, and universities. Vinnytsia is home to six universities, remarkable for a city with a population of 300,000!

We are establishing scientific and development centers where people can come together, generate new ideas, create businesses, and access all the necessary structures to implement those ideas. Often, when building a business, it’s challenging to find the tools, workers, and capital required. We aim to simplify these processes so that people can experiment, quickly test ideas, and bring them to market.

We already have over 100 international technology partners who want to come to Vinnytsia to test their developments and share expertise. University partners are also interested in collaborating with Vinnytsia’s agricultural researchers. We hope to create a very vibrant and productive community.

When do you expect the first results of your activities?

We anticipate that by June 2025, several projects will have already been launched, and the hubs in Vinnytsia will be operational, working with test farms around the city. We’re already introducing three new technologies into Ukraine’s agricultural sector, one of which is particularly interesting.

About the algae that cleans soil after explosions?

Yes, this technology allows for the rapid restoration of soil contaminated by explosions. Explosions on agricultural lands cause several problems. First, high temperatures create scorched areas unsuitable for farming. Second, explosive substances contain toxic chemicals hazardous to humans, such as mercury, cadmium, or even radioactive materials. This can render such fields unfit for cultivating food crops for over 10 years.

Sometimes you see photos of people growing cabbage or beets in abandoned tanks or near them. This is extremely dangerous, as such vegetables can accumulate toxins, causing long-term harm to health

One of our partners involved in the Vinnytsia collaboration developed a technology for cultivating special algae. These algae, similar to marine varieties, grow rapidly in industrial tanks through fermentation, allowing for the production of large quantities.

This technology facilitates soil detoxification by breaking down heavy metals and toxins. Thanks to it, the land restoration process is reduced from decade to three years. After this, the soil becomes suitable for agricultural production.

A tank in a garden near Kyiv. Photo: FB Luydmila Nishenko

Ukraine faces many challenges now. For instance, farmers’ fields still have active mines. There are also issues with logistics, safe grain storage, and other critical matters that need addressing.

Additionally, being a farmer in Ukraine is extremely challenging – it’s not a job where one can get rich quickly

Thus, it’s necessary to find balance and create solutions that help farmers, heal the agricultural system, and speed up recovery from soil contamination and the overall impact of war. The idea is to bring as many innovations and technologies as possible to agriculture.

In addition to the open projects in Kyiv and Vinnytsia, our ultimate goal is to establish similar centers in other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv. This is relatively easy to implement.

By the way, regarding Kharkiv. I wanted to ask you about the educational project you are implementing in this city. On your foundation’s page, I saw a call to support your initiative: only $35 – a safe learning opportunity for children in Kharkiv for one day.

Regarding Kharkiv, we are implementing a joint project with the Ministry of Education aimed at supporting schools and creating assistance centers for children. The idea is to modernize the education system, which in Ukraine has largely remained unchanged for a century. The war and the COVID-19 pandemic have further highlighted the need to adapt learning to contemporary challenges.

Many children are falling behind in their studies, especially in fundamental disciplines like reading, writing, and mathematics. The overall educational level has significantly decreased – by an average of two to three years compared to pre-war times. While there are many educational centers in Ukraine, most of them resemble childcare facilities. They offer a few hours of lessons, games, or English classes, which are helpful for the community. However, we aim to go further – to introduce new, effective approaches to education.

In collaboration with the Ministry of Education, we have opened educational centers in Kharkiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. These centers serve as platforms for experimenting with modern teaching methods. We’ve engaged international specialists in early childhood development, psychologists, and other experts to create innovative approaches. For example, my son in the United States attended a preschool that used the Reggio Emilia approach – an Italian methodology that teaches children to solve problems through collaboration in groups without direct teacher involvement. This approach focuses on fostering teamwork and collective learning.

Additionally, we work with children who have disabilities or have experienced significant trauma.

Some children haven’t spoken a word for six months after losing a parent on the front lines

Yet, after a few months of working with psychologists and other specialists, they begin to open up and talk again. Gradually, we involve them in group activities with other children, helping them share experiences and participate in learning. This is also an important lesson for other children: understanding that every member of society is unique and equally valuable, regardless of their life circumstances.

Our centers deviate from the traditional model where children simply sit at desks and listen to a teacher lecture for an hour – we strive to create an environment that fosters active learning and development.

Furthermore, we are developing educational materials for the Ministry of Education to make new approaches accessible for teacher training nationwide. Everything proven effective in our centers is formalized into methodological recommendations, explaining the necessary resources and including training sessions. We are currently building partnerships with pedagogical universities so that their students can join the work in the centers, gaining practical experience and new knowledge.

Gradually, though it won’t happen immediately, these changes will reach every school because I strongly support the idea of public education. I want to create systems that work for everyone. It’s very easy to open a private school with a new methodology, where only a small number of children will have access. It’s great – it works well, with the best teachers, technology – everyone’s happy.

But real change will happen if we can transform the system on a national level, though this will be very slow. That’s why I don’t claim we can make a big impact immediately, but it’s important that we have a mechanism for change within the education system.

The scope of your projects is impressive – ranging from economic initiatives and demining efforts to soil remediation and new educational methods. You work with city councils, ministries, and commercial enterprises?

At present, we have established partnership agreements and memoranda of cooperation with almost all key ministries in Ukraine: the Ministry of Culture, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Veterans Affairs, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Education and Science, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. Additionally, we have an agreement with the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People.

The Ukrainian government is unique in being easier to work with compared to many other countries' governments

Often, interacting with state institutions feels like talking to a grandparent – a slow and cumbersome process. But in Ukraine, there is a completely different approach: a lot of energy and readiness for change. This is driven by the need to survive. We have no choice but to look for new solutions, try new ideas, and implement them.

Photo: STRINGER / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP/East News

Although our organization is small, we strive to build as broad a network as possible with various ministries and individuals so they can reach out to us with requests or ideas where we can be useful. Our goal is to respond to needs and help address them. Large organizations handle global tasks – delivering hundreds of generators or millions of batteries, funding schools and universities. We cannot operate on such a scale – our approach is different.

We try to be the "glue" that binds new ideas and creates space for rapid testing. We assist without spending millions of dollars. Our value lies in bringing efforts together, promoting innovation, and finding effective solutions.

Do you plan to continue providing such extensive assistance to Ukraine until its victory?

Oh, I’m sure we will actively assist Ukraine for a long time after its victory. The issue is not only about military success. After the war ends, a tremendous amount of work will be needed to restore the country to full functionality, right? We’ll need to help Ukrainians who have gone abroad return. Estimates suggest that five to ten million people are currently outside Ukraine. I expect at least 10–30% of them to return – that's two to three million people who will need reintegration.

Additionally, infrastructure will need to be rebuilt. Preserving a strong democracy after the war will also be a crucial task. In such transitional periods, a lot can go wrong, so I believe our work in Ukraine will continue for a long time.

Personally, I am also involved in defense-related projects. I invest in and collaborate with companies developing military technologies. To be honest, I believe in only one end to this war: the complete military defeat of Russia. Without this and political changes in Russia, I see no real end to the war. At best, we will have a frozen conflict; more likely, an active hot phase where the roles of China, Iran, and North Korea will only grow.

Without Russia’s total defeat, it’s hard to imagine a happy ending for the world. Despite Trump’s statements, I don’t see how he can end the war by 2025, as he promises. Unfortunately, this will be a long fight. Many of Ukraine’s future resources have already been spent to defend the present.

I only hope we won’t sell that future for nothing by seeking a short-term resolution to the war. I believe Europe and the U.S. must seriously invest in Ukraine – providing proper protection for cities and creating opportunities for frontline advances. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two to three months.

Demining in Donetsk Oblast, 15 June 2024. Photo: STRINGER / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP
20
хв

James Hodson: «War is an economic action. To wage a prolonged war, a strong economy is essential»

Olga Pakosh

IWONA REICHARDT: You were in the United States during the final stages of the presidential campaign, and you witnessed the results in Ukraine. Were they a surprise to you?

TAMAR JACOBY: I was – it was a punch in the gut. But I shouldn't have been surprised. Now that I look at the results, I think we all should have seen it coming. We told ourselves it was 50-50, but it wasn't 50-50. Trump won by a significant margin. I don't blame the polling – I don’t think that’s the main problem. I think that people just didn't want to see a Trump victory coming. I certainly didn't want to see it. Now we need to accept that Americans have embraced Donald Trump. 

It's hard to understand why exactly. Is it that voters don't believe he'll do all the crazy things he says he will do? Or is it that they really just don't like the direction that Democrats were taking the country? Why this wholehearted embrace? I’m still struggling to understand it. But clearly Americans have embraced Trump, and we are going to have to accept the choice and live with it for four years. 

Speaking of the crazy stuff you mentioned, one of Trump’s promises is to end the war in Ukraine in a day, something which seems inconceivable… 

Yes, Ukrainian social media had a field day with that in the first days after the election: “The clock is ticking. Don, where is the peace?” But jokes aside, I don't think he will be able to end the war in a day. I think he will find it harder to end than he thinks.  

The big question will be what kind of deal does he propose? I'm very concerned about some of the deals that his advisors have suggested. The second question is how will Putin react? The response from Russia in the last two or three days has not been particularly forthcoming. The third question will be how seriously will Trump stick with his proposal? If you remember his negotiations with North Korea in the first term, he gave up after just a few days of talks. 

So yes, there are many questions about his promise to end the war in 24 hours. Also, when he says he's going to walk away from Ukraine – in fact he hasn't said that exactly, but people have read his comments to mean that. We don’t know what he intends. Does he mean no new weapons from the US, or an end to all support? Or does he mean that the US will continue to provide intelligence and let the Europeans provide military aid, including by purchasing US weapons?

Bottom line: there are many versions of what could happen now, and I think people should focus on making arguments that might persuade Trump to do the right thing rather than immediately assuming he’ll do the worst

What do you think success would mean for Trump when it comes to ending the war in Ukraine? 

We don't know yet. Trump is a very reactive, emotional person. So, a lot depends on how it plays out. He won’t react well if he feels that Putin is snubbing him – that could work to Ukraine’s advantage. And he won’t like it if it looks like America has somehow failed and betrayed its ally. So we just have to see. There are many unknowns and many things that need to play out. What’s important now is to try to help Trump see Ukraine in a frame that could be positive.

Will Trump end the war and on what terms? Photo: JIM WATSON/AFP/East News

This gets us to the Trump-Putin relationship. Who is Putin for Trump? A friend or a foe? 

Unclear. But he is still definitely a foe for Ukraine and the rest of the West. And nothing suggests a change of attitude among ordinary Russians. Ukrainian social media monitors Russian social media very closely, and there’s been a lot of talk in recent days about how America is still Russia’s enemy and America will always be Russia’s enemy. One Ukrainian headline quoted a Russian saying, “Same jerk, different face” – meaning Trump is no different from Biden, And a lot of that attitude is fanned by Putin and his allies.

The big question about the negotiations is what will Trump put on the table?

If Putin walks away, I can imagine there would be consequences – I could see Trump hammering him hard. The question is, why would he walk away? If Trump proposes a freezing of the front line and a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO, why would Putin walk away? That’s my biggest concern. But again, we just don't know. 

Also, let’s not forget about the fourth big player – Europe. You have Ukraine, you have the US, you have Russia, but you also have Europe. And Europe has to get its act together and step up. We could see a scenario where Trump backs away but says “Europe, it’s your responsibility”. Europe then has to find the money and the weapons, and step in. Europeans have been talking about these responsibilities since the war began, but they haven't really done much to increase their military capacity. Poland is spending more, but Germany is still spending almost nothing, and the German government has just collapsed. That is why I'm as concerned about what's going on in Europe as I am about what's happening in the US. 

Do you think Europe, and especially countries such as Poland or the Baltic states, should worry right now? Does Trump’s victory mean we are more at risk of war coming to our door? 

The bottom line is that Europe has to step up. No matter who is president of the United States. Even if Kamala Harris had won, Europe would need to get going. It is not enough to talk the talk – “We have to spend more”. Europeans have to allocate the money and cooperate with each other to make every dollar go as far it can. And they have to do it efficiently. There has been a lot of talk, but the train has not left the station. I understand – things take time in Brussels, and it's complicated. But come on, hurry up. People are dying in eastern Ukraine. And this war will come to Europe’s doorstep. The threats are already on your doorstep. And in this regard, I think Trump’s election might actually help – might push the Europeans to act in a way that the situation on the front line hasn’t pushed them. 

Speaking about the front line, and the overall situation in Ukraine, all the prognoses are not optimistic…

It's not good. The Russians are relying more and more heavily on glide bombs, a brutal tactic. They destroy the place they're trying to take, and then they send in men. And nobody has figured out how to counter these attacks. These are old-fashioned aerial bombs with wings, and they're huge. When they hit, they can destroy whole buildings. And that's what the Russians have done – destroyed city after city.

Photo: AA/ABACA/Abaca/East News

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ammunition is dwindling, and the men are tired. As I understand things, this summer’s mobilization drive has largely fizzled out, and desertions are up. The Ukrainian public is still hanging in there. Opinion polls don’t show much change in attitudes toward the war over the last six months.

Life is amazingly normal in Kyiv. For me, it's great to be back. But people are tired, and I think they are waiting to see how Trump’s election will change the dynamic

Ukrainians are so tired of fighting with one hand tied behind their back, getting some American and European weaponry but not enough and not permitted to use it as they think it should be used. I lot of people are eager for  something bolder – and many think that may be Trump. Many people are worried about him, but some people are hopeful. Maybe Trump will break something – will somehow break the logjam. 

Do you feel the sense of abandonment in Ukraine? Do Ukrainians feel abandoned by the West, by Poland, by the US? 

Those countries aren’t all the same. I think most Poles understand what is going on in Ukraine – understand the existential Russian threat. Most Europeans get it. But most Americans do not get it. They don't understand the stakes or the magnitude of the threat, unfortunately. For most Americans, this war is very far away. And their view of the stakes is more transactional than existential. But even in Europe,  let’s be honest, there is more talk than action. Abandonment is a big word, but maybe it's not far from the truth. It's becoming a lonely fight for Ukraine.

People stand on the balconies of their shelled building in Odesa. Photo: OLEKSANDR GIMANOV/AFP/East News

What is America going to do now, during this period when Joe Biden is a lame duck and Donald Trump is president-elect? 

I do not think there will be another supplemental funding package from Congress. I just don't see it. Both the House and the Senate are now Republican and under Trump’s sway. Still, a few things could happen between now and January. 

We haven't spent all the money from the last supplemental, and we should rush to do that

Senator Lindsey Graham has an interesting idea: giving Ukraine the same status as Israel, opening the way to much wider access to US weapons. It's not quite NATO membership, but it's a lot better than what Ukraine has now. We should also be looking at the rules that govern how American defense contractors can cooperate with contractors in other countries.

Many of these are small things, but the point is it's way too soon to give up. There are things that can be done in the US, things that can be done in Europe. Maybe most important is what Zelenskyy and others are doing – thinking about what arguments will be most compelling to the Trump team. All of these steps can make a difference, and we have to go on. The war is not over. Ukrainians are still fighting, and Russia looks as menacing as ever, for Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

Cover photo: 24th Mechanised Brigade named after King Danylo of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/AFP/East News

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